Sean Trende shows off a model that is largely tied to presidential approval ratings in the battleground states where Senate races are happening in 2022.
“As you can see, Biden isn’t that far off a job approval (currently at 52%) where he could see significant gains in the Senate — enough to almost certainly jettison the filibuster and enact a wide-ranging agenda. Just four points higher, at 56%, Democrats would be expected to gain between two and five seats.”
“But he also isn’t that far off a job approval rating where things would go very poorly: If he enters the midterms at 45% — roughly where presidents have been for the last four midterm elections — Democrats would lose between one and four seats, possibly setting Republicans up for a massive Senate majority after the 2024 elections.”
