Dead Heat for Virginia Governor

A new Monmouth poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) and Glenn Youngkin (R) in a dead heat among registered voters, 46% to 46%.

A range of probabilistic likely electorate models shows a potential outcome – if the election was held today – of anywhere from a 3-point lead for McAuliffe (48% to 45%) to a 3-point lead for Youngkin (48% to 45%).

This is the first time the Republican has held a lead in Monmouth polls this cycle.

Said pollster Patrick Murray: “Suburban women, especially in Northern Virginia, have been crucial to the sizable victories Democrats have enjoyed in the commonwealth since 2017. However, their support is not registering at the same level this time around.”