VA-Gov

First Read lists five reasons why Democrats have a big edge in Virginia’s gubernatorial race:

1. Trump: The current president’s job-approval rating in the state is in the 30s, and remember that Trump lost this state to Hillary Clinton by 5 points on his best day of the general election.
2. History: With just one exception (in 2013 when Terry McAuliffe defeated Ken Cuccinelli), the party that controls the White House has lost every gubernatorial election in Virginia going back to the 1970s.
3. GOP’s poor performance in Virginia: Since 2005, Democrats are 9-1 in major statewide elections in Virginia (for president, Senate, governor).
4. Cash: Northam is outraising Republican opponent Ed Gillespie, which is stunning given Gillespie’s background as a former RNC chair and lobbyist.
5. The advertising war: And Northam is also outspending Gillespie on the TV airwaves, while party spending is about even (see below for more on that).

But they note Gillespie does have one important advantage in this race: Democrats in Virginia don’t turn out as well in non-presidential years.

“The man who rallied Southwest Virginia to vote for Donald Trump last year quit Republican Ed Gillespie’s gubernatorial campaign this week, offended by a personal snub and exasperated by the campaign’s highly cautious stance toward the president,” the Washington Post reports.

“Jack Morgan’s departure follows a half-empty Gillespie rally headlined by Vice President Pence on Saturday in Southwest Virginia, a coal country region that voted overwhelmingly for Trump in November.”

A new Quinnipiac poll in Virginia finds Ralph Northam (D) with a large lead over Ed Gillespie (R) in the race for governor, 53% to 39%.

Said pollster Peter Brown: “One number says it all. Northam’s 14-point lead among independent voters is all you need to know about the race to be Virginia’s next governor. The two major-party candidates do about the same among their respective party bases, but a candidate who carries independent voters by double-digits is almost always a winner.”

A new Fox News poll shows Northam leading by seven points, 49% to 42%.

A new Monmouth poll in Virginia finds Ed Gillespie (R) just ahead of Ralph Northam (D) in the race for governor, 48% to 47%.

Said pollster Patrick Murray: “This has never been more than a five point race in Monmouth’s polling, and that means either candidate has a very real shot at winning this thing. We have seen lots of little movement that has either helped or hurt each candidate but with neither one being able to break out.”

A new Wason Center poll in Virginia finds Ralph Northam’s (D) lead over Ed Gillespie (R) has narrowed in the contest to be Virginia’s next governor, 48% to 44%.

New York Times: “Ed Gillespie, the Republican nominee for Virginia governor, deployed just about every tactical evasion he had learned from a lifetime in politics as he dodged questions about President Trump. Then he finally flashed irritation.”

Said Gillespie: “I don’t know the president.”

A new Wason Center poll in Virginia finds Ralph Northam (D) leading Ed Gillespie (R) in the race for governor by seven points, 49% to 42%.

A new Washington Post-Schar School poll in Virginia finds Ralph Northam (D) leading Ed Gillespie (R) by double-digits, 53% to 40% among likely voters, with Libertarian Cliff Hyra at 4%.

Key findings: “Confederate monuments and illegal immigration have played prominently during the campaign, but voters say they care more about health care, the economy and education.”

A new Christopher Newport University survey in Virginia finds Ralph Northam (D) leading Ed Gillespie (R) in the governor’s race, 47% to 41%.

A new Monmouth poll in Virginia finds Ralph Northam (D) just five points ahead of Ed Gillespie (R) in the race for governor, 49% to 44%.

A new Wason Center poll in Virginia finds Ralph Northam (D) leading Ed Gillespie (R) in the governor’s race by six points, 47% to 41%.

A new Quinnipiac poll in Virginia finds Ralph Northam (D) leading Ed Gillespie (R) in the race for governor by double-digits, 51% to 41%.

A new Fox News poll shows Northam leading Gillespie by four points, 42% to 38%.

A new University of Mary Washington poll in Virginia finds Ralph Northam (D) leading Ed Gillespie (R) in the race for governor, 44% to 39%.

A new Suffolk University poll finds the race evenly split at 42% each.

A new Quinnipiac poll in Virginia finds Ralph Northam (D) leading Ed Gillespie (R) by six points in the race for governor, 44% to 38%.

A new Virginia Commonwealth University poll finds Ralph Northam (D) leading Ed Gillespie (R) in the Virginia governor’s race among likely voters, 42% to 37%.