Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “The first is simply that the Republicans are starting this cycle from a much higher point than they did in 1994 and 2010. In the elections preceding those cycles (1992 and 2008), Republicans had won just 176 and 178 seats, respectively. In 2020, Republicans won 213 seats — just 5 seats shy of a majority. So Republicans are starting this cycle with roughly 35 more seats than they held in advance of their 1994 and 2010 victories.”
“The second is that the Democrats are not very overextended, at least based on the 2020 presidential results. Democrats only won 7 seats that Donald Trump carried for president; compare that to 2008, when Democrats won 49 seats that John McCain carried. Part of what happened in both 1994 and 2010 was conservative districts that voted Republican for president realigning their down-ballot voting from Democratic to Republican.”
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