Jonathan Bernstein: “It’s still hard to see the overall retirement story as signaling a collapse of Democratic resources — and candidates are an important resource — during the 2022 election cycle. That this has happened even as President Joe Biden remains unpopular and the conventional wisdom is even more settled on likely Republican gains suggests that if there is a landslide, it will be a bottom-up event driven by voters opposing Biden rather than a top-down defeat caused by Democrats’ disarray, hostility toward their own incumbents, or just plain fatigue.”
“To be sure: If Biden remains unpopular, Democrats will suffer in November. But if not, I’m not seeing any strong evidence of an already-built-in Republican landslide.”
