Jonathan Bernstein: “Unpopular presidents have lost re-election bids — Donald Trump, George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford. The last two times an unpopular president who was eligible dropped out of a re-nomination fight, in 1952 and 1968, his party lost anyway. This is hardly surprising. If a president is unpopular, then his party will be unpopular. George W. Bush couldn’t run for a third term in 2008, but given his low approval ratings, Republicans never had a chance that year.”
“All of this suggests that if Biden remains unpopular, the Democrats are probably doomed whether they nominate him or not. Indeed, given partisan polarization, it’s unlikely that candidates matter much in most presidential elections.”
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