Where Inflation Goes from Here

Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers:

“One of these months it will turn out to have peaked, but core inflation is now running more than three times as rapidly as its target level, and that entirely excludes energy and food commodities. Inflation will come down at some point, but it is unlikely to be a soft landing without economic pain.”

“I don’t think there’s any reason to expect a recession of the magnitude that we had after Covid struck or with the financial crisis of 2008. I think the recessions of 1990–1991 and 2001 are better models. But if inflation is to be contained, unemployment is likely to rise to somewhere in the vicinity of 6 percent or more. That would be my uncertain best guess.”

Axios: “A recession would be worse than the inflation the U.S. is seeing now, which is actually showing signs of easing up, some progressive economists are now arguing,”