Jonathan Bernstein: “It’s hard to see how contesting Republican primaries would achieve her goals, however, if Trump does run in 2024. An explicit anti-Trump candidate would appear to have no chance at all to be nominated. If anything, such a campaign would be likely to split the anti-Trump vote and help him win.”
“A third-party anti-Trump candidate in the general election might be more successful. In 2000, Ralph Nader concentrated his third-party campaign on contested states, and in those states he worked to secure the votes of those who would otherwise have backed the Democratic nominee, Al Gore. But even if Cheney was willing to campaign in order to elect a Democrat over Trump, it would still be a tricky proposition, since she might wind up winning votes that otherwise would have gone to the Democratic candidate. A true Nader-like anti-Trump candidate would more likely ignore Trump’s crimes and offenses and campaign purely on extreme conservative policy preferences, hoping to peel away some Republicans who might be tempted at the thought of voting for a True Conservative.”
Aaron Blake: Liz Cheney for president? Why it could actually matter.
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