Karl Rove: “With a modestly better political standing than six months ago, Democrats are playing up expectations that they could keep the House by pointing to their special-election performances. Republicans are more reserved about their outlook, but it’s highly likely the GOP wins most of the competitive races and takes the House. And there will be surprises—good and bad—for each side. Candidate quality matters and both parties nominated some knuckleheads.”
“The red wave will likely generate a smaller midterm swing than the average, which since 1934 has been 28 House seats. Republicans are likely to gain closer to 20 than 25. But that’s partly because the GOP got a head start in 2020 by picking up 14 House seats. A net gain of 20 seats this fall would give Republicans 233 — the GOP had 230 in 1995 when Newt Gingrich was elected speaker.”
