Why Democrats Are Likely to Lose the House

Henry Olson: “Republicans currently hold 14 seats in districts that Biden won. Winning back some of these is crucial to Democratic hopes, as they hold nine districts that Trump won and are fighting uphill battles to keep them. GOP mapmakers also drew five Democrats into heavily GOP seats, depriving them of any realistic chance of reelection. (Democrats, by contrast, are only likely to pick up one GOP seat through similar gerrymandering shenanigans.) Pelosi’s party thus needs to win at least as many Biden-GOP seats back as it loses in Trump-Democrat areas to have a prayer of holding its slim five-seat majority.”

“Yet, Democrats have already effectively conceded nearly half their potential targets to Republicans. The Democrats’ House Majority PAC and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee aren’t even airing TV ads in six of those seats. Some of those should be great chances for Democratic wins, such as California’s 27th District (formerly the 25th District), which Biden won by nearly 13 points. The fact that Democrats have essentially abandoned them speaks volumes.”

The Hill: Democrats ready for midterm blame game.