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Can Kevin McCarthy Survive?

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Punchbowl News: “The math here for McCarthy is tricky. It’s feasible that there will be 20 or more Republicans who could vote against him. That would have to be offset by an equal amount of Democratic yes votes, which is what Gaetz wants.”

“The question then becomes can McCarthy really survive inside the Republican conference after losing that many GOP votes? McCarthy’s leadership team knows that’s problematic. McCarthy will run into trouble on rule votes and other party-line procedural measures if he relies on Democrats to keep him in the speaker’s chair.”

“Making it more dicey for McCarthy is that Gaetz has signaled he’ll keep filing these motions until the speaker is gone. But this threat cuts both ways. Gaetz loses the shock value of his motion every time he offers it. McCarthy, though, risks having his support slowly melt away as members tire of walking the plank for him.”

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goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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