Why the Party Vote for Speaker Matters

Playbook: “As we learned in January, when the party vote was followed by 15 rounds on the floor, today’s balloting won’t be the final word on the speakership. But it’s a safe bet that whoever wins the nomination will become the next speaker.”

“Unlike during McCarthy’s slog for the gavel, few — if any — GOP lawmakers are publicly insisting they won’t ever back Scalise or Jordan. Sure, members might threaten to withhold their support on the floor to win a concession or two. But the lack of hell-no ultimatums suggests we’re in for wheeling and dealing but not deadlock.”

“That is, if a nominee is chosen today. Before the voting on the nomination even begins, Republicans will decide on an 11th-hour conference rules change that would temporarily raise the threshold for the party nod from a simple majority of the conference to 217 — the number of votes needed to triumph on the floor.”

Big caveat: “Watch the rules vote closely. Those supporting the change argue it would be much better for Republicans to duke out their differences behind closed doors rather than on the House floor à la January. Opponents fear that without the pressure of a public floor vote, Republicans could spend weeks in what one GOP aide called a ‘doom loop’ trying to nominate a speaker.”