Don’t Read Too Much Into Special Elections

Nate Cohn: “In the typical special election, half of voters are 65 and over. Nearly every special election voter has participated in a recent primary election. Almost everyone is a registered Democrat or Republican. Young voters, irregular voters and independent voters are much scarcer. The nonwhite share of voters is typically smaller. A general election poll with these demographic characteristics would be laughed out of the room.”

“As a result, special elections behave very differently from higher-turnout elections. They’re mostly decided by turnout, as the electorate consists almost entirely of the most partisan and least persuadable voters. At the same time, special election turnout is extremely volatile, with the ultralow turnout enabling turnout advantages that simply don’t happen in higher-turnout and regularly scheduled general elections.”