Are Special Elections an Accurate Snapshot?

Joshua Spivak: “Special elections are having a moment in the spotlight, as political observers increasingly look to the results of these irregularly timed votes to take a snapshot of the electorate… There is still debate about their value, with some pundits arguing that because voter turnout for special elections are generally much lower than during regularly scheduled elections, it may skew the numbers in favor of the temporarily more motivated voters.”

“But a look at the results of recall elections in particular may provide some clarity and show the value of examining special elections. Recalls can be held as either a stand-alone special election or folded into a general or primary election date, where they are generally placed somewhat lower on the ballot.”

“Although both types of dates are likely to result in removal, officials are actually somewhat more likely to be kicked out when the election is held on a regularly scheduled election date. Apparently, the angry, motivated voters do not skew the results. In the end, the results from stand-alone recalls are roughly similar to ones that take place on a regular election date.”