Polls Can’t Measure Hypotheticals

Patrick Ruffini: “The point here is not that the polls are fake or that respondents are lying. Polls are a reflection of the political moment when the poll is taken. And merely asking a hypothetical can’t begin to approximate the dynamics of a change once it actually takes place.”

“Especially as July wore on, some polls were directionally right about Harris polling better than Biden. But these polls got the psychology of the electorate wrong, suggesting a replacement would fare almost as badly as Biden, with all of the downsides Flaherty outlined in his memo.”

“What polls didn’t capture was the enormous sense of relief that would wash over the Democratic Party once the Biden drama was resolved, leading at least for now to a consolidation of the party’s base behind Harris. Three weeks ago, the party was anything but unified, so the polls taken at the time, with their dejected and despondent Democratic samples, weren’t that helpful in making the case for a switch.”