Political Wire

You are here: Home / 2024 Campaign / Harris Would Be Clear Favorite If Election Held Today
Members should sign in for the full experience.

Harris Would Be Clear Favorite If Election Held Today

By Leave a Comment

Nate Silver: “Kamala Harris leads by 3.8 points in our national polling average and would be a clear favorite in an election held today — but you can see the effects of the model’s convention bounce adjustment in why November’s result is still projected at basically 50/50. This is the period when we’d expect Harris to be at the very height of her convention bounce, and the over/under line for polls conducted during this period is something like 4 or 4.5 points; better numbers than that will tend to help her in the forecast, while worse ones will tend to hurt her.”

“The model expects the convention bounce to dissipate over the course of roughly three weeks. So a poll showing Harris ahead by 4 points in a week or two would likely be a net positive for her. But for right now, the bar is set pretty high.”

FavoriteLoadingSave to Favorites

You're reading the free version of Political Wire

Upgrade to a paid membership to unlock full access. The process is quick and easy. You can even use Apple Pay.

Upgrade Now




Recent Posts

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

Praise for Political Wire

“There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them.”

— Chuck Todd, host of “Meet the Press”

“Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the first site I check when I’m looking for the latest political nugget. That pretty much says it all.”

— Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report

“Political Wire is one of only four or five sites that I check every day and sometimes several times a day, for the latest political news and developments.”

— Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report

“The big news, delicious tidbits, pearls of wisdom — nicely packaged, constantly updated… What political junkie could ask for more?”

— Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia

“Political Wire is a great, great site.”

— Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe”

“Taegan Goddard has a knack for digging out political gems that too often get passed over by the mainstream press, and for delivering the latest electoral developments in a sharp, no frills style that makes his Political Wire an addictive blog habit you don’t want to kick.”

— Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post

“Political Wire is one of the absolute must-read sites in the blogosphere.”

— Glenn Reynolds, founder of Instapundit

“I rely on Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire for straight, fair political news, he gets right to the point. It’s an eagerly anticipated part of my news reading.”

— Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist.