A Close Race Is Practically an Inevitability

Dan Pfeiffer: “Being exuberant over a 3-point lead and despondent over a one-point deficit belies a misunderstanding of how polls work. Polling is an inexact science, hence a margin of error.”

“These polls essentially convey the same message: this will be an extremely close race, likely decided by fewer people across several states than the number who attended the Michigan-Texas football game on Saturday. The margin in 2016 was around 70,000 votes, and in 2020, it was even narrower. We remain a deeply polarized and closely divided nation.”