Punchbowl News: “Republicans currently hold an extremely slender three-seat majority in the House. Democrats are seen as favorites to win back control of the chamber, given the historical trends that normally favor the party out of power.”
“But let’s be clear: 2026 is unlikely to be a rerun of the 2018 anti-Donald Trump blue wave. House Democrats picked up a whopping 41 seats that year, propelling Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) back into the speaker’s chair.”
“Consider that in 2016, 23 House Republicans won in districts that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton also carried. This batch of vulnerable GOP incumbents paved the way for major Democratic gains two years later.”
“But in 2024, just three House Republicans won in seats that Vice President Kamala Harris carried. As polarization and redistricting have whittled down the number of competitive House seats, wave elections become less likely.”
For members: No Indications of a Blue Wave Yet
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