Charlie Cook: “Close association with Trump is not a handicap in red states and districts, for now at least. It is a benefit, keeping the band together. But outside red America, it is at best a strong headwind and in some cases, an anchor around the necks of GOP candidates. One way to look at red and blue America is to think about the states that are so red that a GOP candidate literally needs no support from independents, never mind Democrats, to win. The opposite is also the case in heavily Democratic states and districts, where a Democrat can win with no support among Republicans or independents.”
“Most states and congressional districts fall into one of those camps. But there are seven states and several dozen congressional districts that are not majority-Republican or -Democrat, where a candidate needs not just to hold his or her own party together but also a substantial share of the actual independents there. As this column has noted before, Trump is not at all popular in purple America, with only about a third of independents approving of the job he is doing.”
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