The Atlantic: “The Iran war has not quite gone to plan. The U.S. military, working alongside the Israeli armed forces, pummeled its targets in the first fortnight of war and significantly damaged the Iranian military’s capabilities, while also carrying out what is believed to be the deadliest accidental American attack on civilians in decades. Iran’s supreme leader was killed, but the nation’s hard-line regime has not crumpled.”
“Instead, it has expanded and intensified the conflict, raining rockets and drones on its Gulf neighbors. Weakened but resilient, the regime has effectively closed a vital waterway through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supply travels, increasing U.S. gas prices and shocking the global economy.”
“Trump now faces a daunting decision: Does he escalate the conflict to try to achieve his ambitious goals, no matter how unpopular with the American people? Or does he declare some sort of victory and execute a quick withdrawal, minimizing the economic damage but leaving behind an embittered, violent regime with the materials to someday build a nuclear weapon? The eventual outcome may come down to just how much risk Trump is willing to accept—and how much pain he is willing to take.”
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