Seth Masket: “I did a ‘fundamentals’ forecast model of midterm elections that relies upon economic growth (real disposable personal income, to be specific), presidential approval, and the number of seats the president’s party currently holds, drawing on data going back in 1950.”
“That is, it ignores stuff like current House polling, fundraising, redistricting, polarization, war, etc. (Fundamentals-based forecasts tend to do better than ones based on early polling, although that wasn’t true in 2022.) I won’t get into the weeds on that model here, but the relevant income growth measure came in pretty weak, growing just 0.4% over the past year. All that translates to the Democrats picking up 46 House seats.”
“This is a much larger gain for Democrats than most people expect and that polls predict. Historically, it’s not that unusual — it’s on par with the losses by the president’s party in the midterm elections of 1958, 1966, and 1974, and considerably less than Democrats lost under Bill Clinton in 1994 and Barack Obama in 2010. But, yes, if my forecast is right, quite a few people, including me, will be surprised.”
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