Alan Abramowitz: “A House forecasting model based on post-World War II history, the number of seats the presidential party holds going into the midterm, and House generic ballot polling can give us a good sense of what might happen in the House.”
“However, one important factor that the model does not take into account for 2026 is the impact of an apparent Republican advantage in redistricting, which may effectively mean that Republicans are going into November with more seats than they currently hold.”
“But even if one starts the Republicans with 10 more seats than they currently hold because of redistricting gains, the model still suggests Democrats are favored to win the House unless their lead in House generic ballot polling, now about half a dozen points in polling averages, evaporates.”
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