Harrison Lavelle and Leon Sit: “With all that’s changed, how likely is it that the national environment will be as blue as it was in 2018? The short answer: There’s a strong possibility.”
“Going back to the 2010 cycle, polling data has consistently shown that conditions tend to get worse, not better for the president’s party between their first months in office and the midterm election. Reviewing prior ‘generic ballot’ surveys asking Americans whether they would vote for a Democratic or a Republican candidate on a generic congressional ballot, the average gain for the party out of power from the early months of a presidential term to Election Day is 7 points.”
“Democrats will also be dealing with a different electoral landscape than they did in 2018. Since 2016, the Republican coalition has changed drastically, with Trump trading high-propensity, college-educated suburban voters for lower-propensity, non-college-educated voters.”
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