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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192

November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

There Is No ‘Blue Wave,’ But There Is a ‘Red Undertow’

September 25, 2026 · 7:42 am ET · Leave a Comment

Charlie Cook: “Unless you’re politically tone-deaf, you’re by now aware that there are ugly storm clouds ahead for Republicans in this midterm election, now just 43 days away. But how big the storm is and where the destruction will take place is still unknowable. While many have long predicted that Democrats will enjoy a ‘blue wave’ election, I think of it more as a ‘red undertow,’ which will pull many Republicans under and significantly trim the margins for many others.”

“A blue wave implies an endorsement or affirmation of Democrats and their policies. But Democrats’ brand is still in tatters from 2021-2025, particularly 2021 and 2022, when they not only had President Biden in the White House but also majorities in the Senate and House. Fortunately for Democrats, this election will in most cases not be about them.”

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