This piece is only available to Political Wire members.
As we’ve noted, Donald Trump cannot afford to miss hitting the magic number of 1,237 delegates — the number needed to win the Republican nomination. If he doesn’t reach a majority of delegates, it’s becoming clear that he will be stopped on the second ballot.
But it’s also possible Trump could reach 1,237 and still lose at the convention.
The big problem for Trump is that some of his delegates might be disloyal. That’s because some states choose delegates separate from the process by which candidates win delegates. The actual people who end up in the seats at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland may have other plans.
Sen. Ted Cruz’s campaign — and to some extent Gov. John Kasich’s campaign as well — is working hard in every state still choosing delegates. If he’s successful, he will be able to place some of his own loyalists as Trump’s delegates.
Cruz will also a rule to “unbind” the delegates — to allow them to vote their preference and possibly ignore the outcome of the primaries.
Jonathan Bernstein explains:
The process involves three steps. First, the Republican National Committee will establish a set of proposed rules for the convention. Rules maven Josh Putnam says it’s unlikely that those rules will free the delegates. Then, a week before the gathering, those rules will be handed off to the convention’s rules committee, which is free to change them any way it likes. Once that’s done, the rules go to the full convention, which can accept them as is or amend them in any way it deems appropriate.
If the delegates vote to free themselves, then that’s that: They will vote as they wish, regardless of how they were chosen to vote.
And if that happens, Trump is done — even if he wins a majority of the delegates during the primaries.
Trump’s best hope might be that public opinion polls will continue to show that most Republican voters think the winner of the most delegates should be the nominee — even if he falls short of a majority. But as Bernstein writes, voters “are unlikely to have strong views about procedure, at least if they wind up with a candidate they can support.”
If Trump hasn’t reconciled with party leaders by July, they’re very likely to snatch the nomination away from him.
Save to Favorites