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Signals to Watch From Next Month’s Races

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Ron Brownstein: “The pivotal question in November’s New Jersey and Virginia governor races may be whether the outcome is shaped more by President Donald Trump’s electoral strengths or by his weaknesses.”

“Four years ago, the GOP candidates in both races benefited from one of Trump’s most important political gains: improving the GOP vote among working-class racial minorities. But they were able to minimize the impact of his most conspicuous political vulnerability: a shift away from the Republican Party in white-collar suburbs.”

“This year, though, the equation seems reversed. Heading into the final weeks, that dynamic has provided a consistent mid-single-digit edge in polls for Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and a wider advantage for Abigail Spanberger in Virginia.”

Surveillance Worries Emerge from ‘No King’ Protest

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Reuters: “People who take part in Saturday’s mass ‘No Kings’ protest against President Donald Trump’s administration may be targeted for federal government surveillance with a range of technology that could include facial recognition and phone hacking.”

“‘No Kings’ organizers expect 2,600 rallies across all 50 U.S. states. But the level of surveillance at protests and the type of technology in use is likely to be both location-specific and dependent on the police forces present.”


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Congress Is Running Out of Time on Obamacare Subsidies

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“The window for extending billions of dollars in Americans’ healthcare subsidies is closing rapidly,” the Washington Post reports.

“Enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies are set to end after this year unless Congress acts, and open enrollment for insurance next year starts next month. Democrats have demanded that Republicans negotiate on extending the subsidies as a condition for ending the government shutdown, now in its third full week. Republicans recognize that many of their voters will be hurt by a cutoff in tax credits, but say the program known as Obamacare needs major changes.”

“Any deal to end the shutdown is expected to involve a fix for the expiring ACA subsidies, which flow to more than 20 million people. But extending the enhanced subsidies would be difficult to swallow for Republicans in Congress, who have spent the past decade and a half railing against the 2010 law that passed—and was later expanded—with only Democratic votes.”

Rubio Promised to Betray Informants

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“In the days before the Trump administration deported hundreds of Venezuelan immigrants to a notorious prison in El Salvador, the president of that country demanded something for himself: the return of nine MS-13 gang leaders in U.S. custody,” the Washington Post reports.

“Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a March 13 phone call with Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, promised the request would be fulfilled, according to officials familiar with the conversation. But there was one obstacle: Some of the MS-13 members Bukele wanted were ‘informants’ under the protection of the U.S. government, Rubio told him.”

Shutdown Fight Reopens GOP Debate Over Health Care

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“The federal shutdown that is nearing its fourth week with no end in sight carries plenty of political risk for Democrats, who Republicans have accused of refusing to fulfill their responsibility to fund the government,” the New York Times reports.

“But it has also thrust President Trump and the G.O.P. onto the defensive on health care, an issue that has long been a major weakness for the party.”

“Democrats in Congress are holding fast to their position that they will not agree to a spending deal unless Republicans include an extension of expiring Affordable Care Act tax credits that would stave off premium increases and the loss of coverage for millions of Americans.”

Democrats Are Still Running Against Trump

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New York Times: “After a year of soul-searching and introspection by Democrats about what they should stand for after losing the White House and Senate in 2024, the party is largely coalescing behind the same message that has united it for the past decade: stopping Donald Trump.”

“From coast to coast, the tactical decision to continue centering Mr. Trump in advertising in the closing stretch of 2025 contests has left some party strategists concerned about a missed opportunity to forge a more forward-looking vision.”

Putin Demands Ukraine Surrender Land

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“Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call this week with President Donald Trump demanded that Kyiv surrender full control of Donetsk, a strategically vital region in eastern Ukraine, as a condition for ending the war,” the Washington Post reports.

“Putin has tried and failed to conquer the territory for 11 years, repeatedly repulsed by Ukrainian forces who are deeply entrenched in an area they believe is a major bulwark against a speedy Russian advance westward toward their capital.”

Epstein Had Dinners with Top Prosecutor on His Case

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“Jeffrey Epstein had multiple appointments, phone calls and dinners with Matthew Menchel — the Miami U.S. Attorney’s office chief criminal prosecutor who spearheaded Epstein’s sweetheart deal in 2007,” the Miami Herald reports.

“A tranche of over 8,500 pages of records from Epstein’s estate — released by the House Oversight Committee Friday — show that Epstein’s calendars and emails reflect that Menchel, who left the DOJ in 2007, had multiple meetings or dinners with Epstein in 2011, 2013 and 2017. Lawmakers also referred to a photograph of Menchel on a ski trip with Epstein sometime in the 2000s, but didn’t produce the photo.”

IRS Files Tax Lien Against Jim Justice

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“The IRS recently filed notices of a federal tax lien against Republican Sen. Jim Justice of West Virginia — the latest example of ongoing financial troubles that have trailed the former governor, members of his family and their network of businesses over the years,” Politico reports.

“One of the documents from the IRS lists Justice and his wife, Cathy, as having a total balance of more than $8 million in unpaid assessments.”

Vermont Lawmaker Resigns Over Racist Chat

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“A Vermont state senator has resigned over his involvement in a Young Republican group chat after racist and antisemitic chat messages shared among its members were made public,” the Washington Post reports.

“Republican Samuel Douglass announced his resignation, effective Monday, in a lengthy statement posted online, adding that he was ‘deeply sorry for the offense’ caused by his comments.”

Coast Guard Buys Two Private Jets for Kristi Noem

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“The Department of Homeland Security has purchased two Gulfstream private jets for Kristi Noem, the secretary, and other top department officials at a cost of $172 million,” the New York Times reports.

“The jets, which a department official said were needed for safety, are the latest expenditures on behalf of Ms. Noem to draw scrutiny from Democrats and other critics who have noted her lavish spending on living and other expenses during her time in public life.”

Trump Still a Factor in November Races

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“Donald Trump may not be on the ballot in the fall’s biggest political races, but both sides are counting on him to help them win,” CNN reports.

“A year after winning back the White House, Republicans are racing to motivate voters who love the president and Democrats are rallying those who don’t, as the races for governor in New Jersey and Virginia play out as an early referendum on Trump’s second term.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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