Signals to Watch From Next Month’s Races

Ron Brownstein: “The pivotal question in November’s New Jersey and Virginia governor races may be whether the outcome is shaped more by President Donald Trump’s electoral strengths or by his weaknesses.”

“Four years ago, the GOP candidates in both races benefited from one of Trump’s most important political gains: improving the GOP vote among working-class racial minorities. But they were able to minimize the impact of his most conspicuous political vulnerability: a shift away from the Republican Party in white-collar suburbs.”

“This year, though, the equation seems reversed. Heading into the final weeks, that dynamic has provided a consistent mid-single-digit edge in polls for Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and a wider advantage for Abigail Spanberger in Virginia.”