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Kalshi Bans George Santos for Life

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“Kalshi said on Monday that it would ban former Republican Rep. George Santos from using its platform for life after a federal regulator alleged that the ex-congressman made more than $17,000 by placing bets on his attendance at President Trump’s State of the Union address,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“In addition to the ban, Kalshi said its compliance department had imposed a penalty of $71,356, according to a filing on its website. It marks the first time the company has issued a lifetime ban.”

Trump Says U.S. Will Hit Iran ‘Hard’ as Conflict Reignites

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“Donald Trump has vowed more attacks on Iran after the warring countries exchanged fire for the first time in more than a month, sending oil prices up 3 percent,” the Financial Times reports.

“The U.S. president issued a warning on Monday hours after Tehran fired missiles at American assets in Jordan in response to an attack by the U.S. on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, ending a month of relative calm in the war.”

Said Trump: “There will be a response to Iran’s retaliatory attack. We’re going to hit them hard.”

Trump Voters Express Rare Frustration with the President

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NBC News: “For more than a decade, one of Trump’s greatest strengths has been the devotion of his base — voters who were reluctant to criticize him and quick to defend him in public settings. Many of them have lost or strained friendships with their vehement support and insistence that he is virtually infallible.”

“But in late-August conversations with Trump voters across eight of the nation’s most competitive congressional districts, running along Interstate 80 from central New Jersey to Omaha, Nebraska, there was a new willingness among Trump voters to voice their critiques on issues including inflation, the war with Iran and the White House ballroom construction.”

This El Niño Will Be Unlike Any in the Past Eight Decades

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The Atlantic: “In the middle of the Pacific Ocean, along the equator, scientists have drawn a box. It’s a big box, two-thirds the size of China, yet hardly anyone lives inside it. This rectangular swath of open ocean is monitored by satellites and a network of moored buoys that measure minute changes in the temperature of the water, with an eye toward anomalies.”

“Every few years or so, driven by changing winds and currents, the water temperature in this part of the ocean starts to rise; even a half degree Celsius above normal over months warrants a designation that an El Niño phase has begun. That’s enough warming to unleash floods and fires, drought and famine, around the world. The box is called Niño 3.4. Right now, it’s hot in the box.”

House Returns From Five Weeks Away

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“The House is scheduled to return Monday from a five-week summer recess with a top priority of avoiding a government shutdown before the midterm elections,” NBC News reports.

“The House will only be in session for four days this week and will return again on Sept. 14, after Labor Day, when the Senate will also come back from its lengthy break. From there, the House has just three weeks left in session before Election Day on Nov. 3.”

The GOP’s Trump Trap

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Republicans have a fairly obvious problem heading into the midterm elections.

They need to persuade many of the lower-propensity voters who turned out for Donald Trump to show up again when he is not on the ballot.

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Democrats Return to Washington Eager to Flip House

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“Democrats are seen as the overwhelming favorite to win back the House in just over two months. They aren’t looking to leave anything to chance,” Bloomberg reports.

“At least a couple dozen House Democrats are defending purplish districts this fall, and even more blue candidates are vying to flip Republican-held seats.”

“Democratic groups’ ad spending is ramping up in districts everywhere from Florida to Arizona to Washington state, with messages laser-focused on the cost of living — particularly healthcare.”

Leaders Gather Amid China’s Efforts to Expand Influence

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“Asian leaders including the heads of China, India, and Russia gather for a summit today as Beijing tries to expand its regional influence,” Semafor reports.

“The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation members will meet in Kyrgyzstan to discuss energy and security, both of which have taken on new regional significance since the start of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran.”

Pro-AI Group Jumps Into the Data Center Fight

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“One of the largest pro-AI groups involved in the midterm elections announced a new effort Monday aimed at shifting public opinion on data centers as they have become a flashpoint in the battle for control of Congress and state and local governments,” NBC News reports.

“The effort includes an initial multimillion-dollar ad campaign in Kansas, Ohio and Wisconsin to promote what its backers believe are responsible policies to govern data center growth. In addition, the group announced the formation of a political organization that will support state and federal candidates ahead of the November elections.”

GOP Leaders Begin Soul-Searching for Life After Trump

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“Republicans say their party will need to do a lot of soul searching to find its direction before President Trump leaves office in 2029, something that is coming into sharper focus with the approaching midterm election and the realization that Trump will soon become a lame duck,” NewsNation reports.

“GOP strategists and political experts say the discussion about what comes next will begin to ramp up considerably after the November election. It’s a discussion likely to be impacted by how effective the GOP is this fall in defending its House and Senate majorities.”

G20 Finance Officials Gather in U.S.

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“Top economic policymakers from many of the world’s wealthiest nations begin two days of meetings on Monday in Asheville, N.C. at an incredibly challenging moment. Global inflation is high, growth is choked by war in the Middle East, and rising borrowing costs are straining government budgets,” the New York Times reports.

“But on the eve of the summit of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 nations, those questions were clouded by a series of controversies around participation, including whether the Trump administration would let Russia attend while refusing to allow South Africa’s delegation to join.”

9/11 Commemoration Invites Scrutiny of El-Sayed

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“As the nation prepares to mark 25 years since Sept. 11, 2001, Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Michigan, may be facing the risk of renewed scrutiny and fresh political attack,” CBS News reports.

“El-Sayed is a leader of a new crop of candidates from a wing of his party that opposed American wars and capitalized on anger over anti-Arab sentiment in a state with a robust and active Muslim community. But now he is now attempting to adapt – and in some cases delete – past statements that may run afoul of a broad, general election audience.”

How Much Is the Iran War Costing Americans?

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John Cassidy: “In principle, it’s easier to estimate the economic costs of the war; in practice, the task is far from straightforward. Even if the calculation is restricted to the United States, you first have to count the military outlays on things such as munitions, additional troop deployments, and repairing the extensive damage that Iranian counterstrikes have done to American bases in the Middle East.”

“Then there are the financial costs that higher energy prices have imposed on American households and businesses. Plus, there are more indirect costs, such as the penalties that Americans have paid in terms of higher inflation and rising interest rates. Only by putting all these things together is it possible to estimate the total cost.”

Corporate America’s Profits Are Booming

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“Profits are booming at America’s biggest companies—and their leaders say that likely won’t change soon,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Chalk the good times up to a confluence of fortunate events: red-hot artificial-intelligence spending, federal spending and the windfall companies are getting in the form of refunds of some of their past tariff payments. Plus, a booming stock market and high home values are helping many shoppers keep spending, even as plenty of others struggle to absorb rising prices.”

About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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