Political Wire

Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 187

Bad Instincts

A new episode of Trial Balloon just dropped for Political Wire members. Log in or become a member

Trial Balloon · Ep. 187: Bad Instincts

Oil Prices Could Be Much Higher

By Leave a Comment

Associated Press: “When President Donald Trump launched his war against Iran in late February, energy analysts issued dire warnings that oil prices could more than double during a protracted conflict and urged investors and motorists to buckle up for a bumpy ride.”

“The war grinds on and oil prices certainly remain volatile. But the most dire projections have not yet come to pass six months into a conflict that has no end in sight.”

“Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is making a much-anticipated state visit to Washington next week, could make a credible argument that the world has his country’s energy strategy to thank for that.”

Mike Waltz Quietly Signals He’s Looking Past the UN

By Leave a Comment

Politico: “Around Washington, there’s speculation that he might someday go for a Senate seat from Florida, and no one rules out a presidential run… The late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told people that Waltz had sought his support in becoming secretary of State should Marco Rubio, whom many pols suspect has presidential aspirations, leave the role.”

New Battleground District Poll Shows Democrats Up

By Leave a Comment

Cook Political Report: “A new Battleground District Project poll of the most competitive House districts in the country finds Democrats in a strong position to flip control of the chamber this fall. It also finds an electorate eager to see a new Congress do more than simply hold President Donald Trump to account, but also to make fundamental changes to the political system.”

“The poll, which was conducted for The Cook Political Report by Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group, surveyed voters in the 37 districts we rate as Toss Up, Lean Republican or Lean Democrat. In those competitive districts, which Trump won by an average of five points in 2024, Democrats now hold a two-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, 49% to 47%.”

“In other words, a district that Trump carried by five points in 2024 would have a Democratic advantage of two points today — a seven-point swing in Democrats’ favor.”

Denmark Optimistic About Greenland Agreement with U.S.

By Leave a Comment

“Denmark’s government was cautiously optimistic on Saturday following Donald Trump’s announcement of a deal on Greenland to bolster U.S. military presence there but keep the island under Danish control after months of threats by the U.S. president to seize the semiautonomous territory of a NATO ally,” the Associated Press reports.

“The Arctic island’s top leaders echoed that stance and said the deal, which has not yet been made public, was long in coming.”

CNBC: Trump says U.S. to build a “large Military presence” in Greenland as part of a security deal with it and Denmark.

More U.S. Troops Have Died Amid Iran War Than Disclosed

By Leave a Comment

“More American service members have died in the Middle East during the ongoing Iran war than the Pentagon has disclosed publicly, according to six U.S. officials familiar with the Defense Department’s internal casualty accounting data,” the Washington Post reports.

“Five of the officials said there have been at least 22 military fatalities — four more than what appears in the Pentagon’s public database.”

“A sixth official, who like the others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the figures, said 23 service members have died since Feb. 28, when the Trump administration, in concert with Israel, initiated the Iran war.”

Mother Jones: What else is the Pentagon hiding from us?

Dutch Police Break Up Violent Far-Right Protest

By Leave a Comment

“Dutch police broke up a far-right protest of several hundred demonstrators in The Hague after it turned violent on Saturday,” Bloomberg reports.

“Protesters gathered in the center of the Dutch administrative capital under the banner ‘We Are the People,’ with some displaying extremist symbols and slogans. Clashes broke out as demonstrators threw fireworks and other objects at police.”

Postal Service Cost-Cutting Plan Slows Mail Delivery

By Leave a Comment

“The U.S. Postal Service has slowed down mail deliveries so much it’s failing to meet even its lowered performance targets, a new report from the Government Accountability Office found,” Axios reports.

“Why it matters: The Postal Service is part of the connective tissue of American life: delivering prescription drugs and ballots, carrying government notices and bills, helping businesses reach customers across the country.”

Saudi Arabia Issues Rare Air-Raid Alerts

By Leave a Comment

“Saudi Arabian authorities issued air-raid alerts for Riyadh early Saturday, the first in the capital since the height of the U.S.-Iran war in March and April,” Bloomberg reports.

“The kingdom’s early warning system issued emergency alerts at 4 a.m. and again at 6 a.m. for residents of the capital, without giving further details.”

Nobel Economists Throw Support Behind Billionaire Tax

By Leave a Comment

“A group of progressive Nobel Prize-winning economists has joined the fray in California’s battle over what would be the first wealth tax in the U.S. if state voters approve the measure in November,” the Financial Times reports.

“Six laureates including Joseph Stiglitz and Peter Diamond have penned an open letter backing the proposed one-time 5 percent levy on billionaires, saying it could kick-start a movement to introduce wealth taxes across America and the world.”

New York Magazine: California’s landmark wealth tax may be running out of steam.

Midterm Voting Starts in Key States

By Leave a Comment

“It’s 45 days before an Election Day that will determine control of Congress for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s second term and 20 states are already mailing ballots to voters. That includes the hard-fought Senate contests in Texas, Michigan and North Carolina,” Bloomberg reports.

“Tens of millions of Americans will have already cast their ballots before Nov. 3, thanks largely to the Supreme Court earlier this week blocking an effort by the Trump administration to add new restrictions to voting by mail. Thirteen states will in the next 15 days join those that have already sent ballots to voters.”

Hispanic Voters’ Support for Trump Wanes

By Leave a Comment

“Hispanic voters who helped re-elect Donald Trump in 2024 are discontent with his second-term economic and immigration policies, according to recent polling – indicating they may not be willing to support the president’s party in the midterm elections,” The Guardian reports.

“Despite a record number of Hispanic voters casting their ballots for the Republican president, more than 65% said they are displeased with Trump’s handling of his job and 78% said they would prefer to see the Democratic party in control of Congress, according to a September poll from the New York Times/Siena University.”

Iran War Causes Global Pain at the Pump

By Leave a Comment

“The Iran war is driving fuel prices higher worldwide, leading to angry protests around the globe and straining the economies of countries that have nothing to do with the war,” Axios reports.

“It’s not just driving up prices in the U.S. The war is causing problems around the world — in some cases far worse than anything Americans are experiencing.”

“The surge in prices squeezes consumers, and worsens the finances of governments trying to contain the shock — especially poorer and developing countries with little fiscal running room.”

About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

Praise for Political Wire

“There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them.”

— Chuck Todd, host of “Meet the Press”

“Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the first site I check when I’m looking for the latest political nugget. That pretty much says it all.”

— Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report

“Political Wire is one of only four or five sites that I check every day and sometimes several times a day, for the latest political news and developments.”

— Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report

“The big news, delicious tidbits, pearls of wisdom — nicely packaged, constantly updated… What political junkie could ask for more?”

— Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia

“Political Wire is a great, great site.”

— Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe”

“Taegan Goddard has a knack for digging out political gems that too often get passed over by the mainstream press, and for delivering the latest electoral developments in a sharp, no frills style that makes his Political Wire an addictive blog habit you don’t want to kick.”

— Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post

“Political Wire is one of the absolute must-read sites in the blogosphere.”

— Glenn Reynolds, founder of Instapundit

“I rely on Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire for straight, fair political news, he gets right to the point. It’s an eagerly anticipated part of my news reading.”

— Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist.