A new Emerson College Polling poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 53% to 42%.
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrats 53%
Republicans 42%
Why the Senate Is Sticking Around
Punchbowl News: “For much of this week, it seemed today would be the Senate’s last day in session before the midterms. Senate Majority Leader John Thune looked content to pass a bill overhauling college sports and then go home to campaign.”
”Then political reality hit.”
”Senators from all corners of the conference – especially vulnerable Republicans – used a private GOP lunch Wednesday to say they wanted to come back next week. They want to give themselves another shot at votes tied to the central themes of the 2026 elections – affordability and the rising cost of living.”
House Democrats Float Forcing Committee Leaders Pay Up
“Some House Democrats are pushing a caucus rule change that would make paying campaign dues a condition for any lawmaker seeking posts as committee and subcommittee leaders,” the Washington Sun reports.
“After the lawmakers return to the Capitol after the midterms, some Democrats plan to bring up a proposal in their organizational meetings for next Congress that would ensure committee leaders are contributing dues to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — the political and fundraising apparatus that assists caucus-wide members in their reelection bids.”
Kyrsten Sinema’s Ex-Bodyguard Trashed Her Arizona Home
“Former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s ex-bodyguard turned lover allegedly trashed her Arizona home while she was out of town — causing more than $200,000 in damage as he tossed dozens of valuable paintings into her pool,” the New York Post reports.
Republicans Have 1 More Chance to Oppose the Iran War
“Republicans appear increasingly anxious that the economic fallout from the Iran war could cost them their House and Senate majorities. They have one more chance to stage a symbolic jailbreak — and it’s not clear enough of them are ready to take the leap,” Politico reports.
”The Senate will vote as soon as Thursday on another measure aimed at halting the war, giving Democrats likely their final opportunity to put their GOP colleagues on the record before leaving town until after the midterms.”
The First Prediction-Market Election
CNN: “All this wagering is scrambling nearly every aspect of the midterms — from campaigns to election officials, voters, donors and traders — according to interviews with 20 people involved in elections and prediction sites. Many have dubbed it the ‘first prediction-market election.'”
“Multiple election officials told CNN prediction platforms are fostering a new wave of disinformation and creating risks for possible insider trading within their own offices.”
Republicans Accelerate Their Break with Trump
“Forty days before the midterm elections, a growing number of Republican candidates across the country are openly seeking to distance themselves from President Trump, breaking with a leader who has long held an iron grip on his party,” the New York Times reports.
“On Monday, the Republicans running for Senate in both Michigan and Iowa called on the president to end the war in Iran as a way to reverse the escalating price of gas. On Tuesday, GOP candidates for governor in Wisconsin and Michigan, along with an embattled Republican senator in Ohio, followed.”
Susan Collins Leads in Maine Senate Race
A new New York Times/Siena poll in Maine finds Susan Collins (R) leading Troy Jackson (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 46%.
Maine Senate Race
Susan Collins (R) 49%
Troy Jackson (D) 46%
The same poll in Michigan finds Abdul El-Sayed (D) leading Mike Rogers (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 44%.
Michigan Senate Race
Abdul El-Sayed (D) 49%
Mike Rogers (R) 44%
The same poll in New Hampshire finds Chris Pappas (D) leading John Sununu (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 45%.
New Hampshire Senate Race
Chris Pappas (D) 50%
John Sununu (R) 45%
Democrats Brace for a Crypto PAC Cash Avalanche
“After Senate Democrats blocked a bill to regulate cryptocurrency on the Senate floor last week, the industry’s major Super PAC network announced the first installment in what is expected to be a heavy wave of spending before the midterm elections,” the Washington Sun reports.
Judge Blocks Trump’s White House Ban of News Outlets
“A federal judge has ordered that access to the White House be temporarily restored for reporters from CNN, MS NOW and Politico after they were banned by President Donald Trump,” the Washington Post reports.
”U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly on Thursday issued a 14-day restraining order while the outlets’ legal challenge of the ban proceeds.”
From ‘Dictator’ Deputy to Trump Ally
“The last time Delcy Rodríguez addressed the United Nations General Assembly, in 2019, she spoke as Nicolás Maduro’s vice president and declared that Venezuela ‘does not kneel before any imperial power,'” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Seven years later, with Maduro in a Brooklyn jail, she was back in New York praising oil deals with the U.S. in a speech at the UN and smiling for photos with the American president who ordered Maduro’s arrest.”
The Biggest Economic Bet in U.S. History
“The AI build-out is on track to become the biggest economic bet in U.S. history, dwarfing the investments made to fund other huge U.S. infrastructure projects such as the railroads, the highway system and the plumbing for the internet,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Total investment in data centers and related artificial-intelligence infrastructure is projected to total $10.3 trillion from 2025 to 2032, according to new estimates by economist Stijn van Nieuwerburgh published by the Brookings Institution. That is a staggering 3.6% of gross domestic product a year, on average. Never before has the U.S. economy been so dependent on the build-out of a single industry.”
“The investment is transforming every corner of the economy, creating hundreds of thousands of jobs and minting new billionaires.”
Republicans No Longer Target North Carolina and Georgia
“The National Republican Senatorial Committee is shifting its focus away from the North Carolina and Georgia Senate races as it works to shore up red states like Texas and flip other Democratic-held seats,” Politico reports.
”In a closed-door meeting Wednesday, Sen. Tim Scott, the chair of the NRSC, told Senate Republicans that the campaign arm will focus its spending going forward on defending GOP seats in Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas and trying to flip the Democratic-held seats of Michigan and New Hampshire.”
For members: Republicans Are Acting Like the Polls Are Right
Trump Denies Report of Adding His Name to Ford’s Theatre
“President Donald Trump denounced reporting by MS NOW that administration officials have floated attaching his name to Ford’s Theatre, the playhouse where an assassin killed President Abraham Lincoln in 1865,” Bloomberg reports.
Iran’s Secret Weapon Is Help From China
Wall Street Journal: “Xi is visiting President Trump in Washington this week for a summit that will cover weighty topics including trade, artificial-intelligence safety and relations with Taiwan. But the elephant in the room will be China’s continuing support for Iran.”
“China has become the only major buyer of Iranian oil, despite U.S. sanctions meant to stop the flows, providing billions of dollars for Tehran this year. Chinese front companies help launder the funds, while Chinese banks route the transactions through the country’s financial plumbing, using China’s currency, to evade U.S. oversight.”
“On the battlefield, satellite imagery procured from Chinese entities has been linked by U.S. officials to an Iranian strike that killed three American troops… Chinese companies have also helped provide chemical precursors used to manufacture the types of ballistic missiles used in the attack.”
Timothy Mellon Pulls Back From Senate Republicans
“One of the Republican Party’s biggest donors has sharply reduced his giving ahead of the midterm elections, especially to Senate Republicans, a decision driven largely by the party’s failure to pass a far-reaching bill of voting restrictions,” the New York Times reports.
“The donor, Timothy Mellon, a reclusive Wyoming billionaire who is a grandson of the Gilded Age industrialist Andrew Mellon, gave nearly $200 million to support President Trump and other Republicans in the 2024 election. Only Elon Musk donated more.”
“Two years later, Mr. Mellon has given just $3 million or so in publicly disclosed donations to Republican candidates or groups.”
Mary Peltola’s Campaign Is Rocked by Tumult
“National Democrats cheered when Mary Peltola, the former Alaska congresswoman, declared in January that she would run for the Senate,” the New York Times reports.
“Ms. Peltola, an Alaska Native who grew up fishing for salmon on the Kuskokwim River, was well-known and well-liked statewide, even by Republicans. Her party hailed her as one of its strongest prospects for ousting a Republican incumbent and winning control of the Senate.”
“But behind the scenes, her political operation has been marked by tumult, a pattern that stretches back to her time in Congress. Former aides describe angry and profane outbursts, sometimes directed at aides and sometimes expressed about others who had displeased her. In one instance, she shoved an aide… Another conflict led to a surprising staff shake-up on the eve of the primary election last month.”
Michigan Republicans Break with Trump
“GOP candidates locked in crucial midterm races in Michigan are breaking with President Donald Trump on the war in Iran, AI and data centers — part of a broader trend as more Republicans across the country have started putting some distance between themselves and the president,” NBC News reports.
“But Michigan is particularly notable given that the Senate race there is one of the best pickup opportunities on the map for Republicans, and the state remains a critical presidential battleground and national bellwether looking ahead to 2028.”
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