Florida could be the new
presidential kingmaker, according to the latest National Journal
Political Insiders Poll.

Strategists and advisers from both parties
said Florida will be more important than Iowa, New Hampshire,
or South Carolina in determining the 2012 Republican nominee for
president.

Several sources tell Politico that Michele Bachmann’s campaign has “serious money issues on the horizon.”

New York Post: “Insiders are whispering that the Tea Party darling’s financials are grim and she may be out of the race before she makes it to the Iowa caucus in February, even though she has a strong base in the state. Sources tell us say Bachmann’s skeletal staff are holding their collective breath until the deadline to disclose her fundraising report on Oct. 15.
Meanwhile, we hear a computer vendor has called her campaign headquarters threatening to shut down the power due to an outstanding bill. Sources say she had about $400,000 at the beginning of September, but also stacks of bills.”

Said one source: “She does not like to ask for money. She should have been focusing on big donors about three months ago. She’s only cultivated low dollar donors with direct mailings and that’s hurt her.”

The New York Post reports New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) “is giving serious thought to jumping into the ring for a GOP presidential run” and that an announcement “may come as soon as Monday, said sources familiar with Christie’s thinking.”

“Contradictions in sworn statements about Rick Perry’s fundraising for his 2006 reelection bid raise questions about whether aides to the Texas governor… gave false or misleading testimony under oath,” Reuters reports.

“At issue were the circumstances surrounding a $1 million contribution to the campaign, and whether the Republican Governors’ Association, which paid out the funds, was used as a conduit to camouflage their true origin. The lawsuit alleged that the actual donor was Texas multi-millionaire Bob Perry, a long-time supporter of Rick Perry (no relation) better known for bankrolling the Swift Boat campaign that torpedoed Senator John Kerry’s presidential bid.”

Jill Lawrence: “When Perry is under fire over some aspect of his Texas record, he hasn’t pivoted to signature plans for jobs or foreign policy. A spin through Perry’s website underscores the problem. Under ‘Jobs,’ we find five paragraphs of conservative boilerplate. The most detailed sentence refers to ‘low taxes, reasonable regulations, a predictable civil litigation system and an educated workforce.'”

“Moving along, there are six paragraphs on fiscal responsibility, hitting on similarly broad themes (tax cuts, spending cuts, balanced budgets); three generic paragraphs on foreign policy (he believes in American exceptionalism and defending our borders); and two paragraphs on health care (he would repeal Obamacare and create more jobs).”

Mike Murphy: “At this moment of inflection, two people hold the keys to the GOP primaries. First, Sarah Palin: if she enters, Perry will have far more trouble on his right and Romney will become much more likely to enter Iowa to win… The second is Perry’s debate coach. If the governor of Texas cannot dramatically improve his performance in his next showdown with his GOP rivals, he may not even make it to Iowa.”

The New York Times and Washington Post both take a  look at Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign and wonder why he hasn’t been able to excite Republican
primary voters.

First Read: “Yet here’s one reason both articles don’t really mention:
his past positions on issues… Only six years ago, he
supported abortion rights; in 1994, he sent a letter saying he’d be a
stronger advocate for gay rights than Ted Kennedy; according to a 2006
article, he supported a path to citizenship for law-abiding illegal
immigrants; he has said that his Massachusetts health-care law should be
a model for other states; and he said back in June that humans have
contributed to the world getting warmer — and that it’s important to
reduce emissions to combat that. All of those positions are anathema to
conservatives. A question: Does this Republican electorate want to ‘settle,’ gravitate behind the most electable? When they’ve ‘settled in
the past, many conservative leaders have regretted it (see McCain or
Dole or Bush 41).”

A new Gallup poll finds 45% of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, while nearly as many, 44%, are less enthusiastic.

In contrast, 58% of Republicans and independents who lean Republican describe themselves as more enthusiastic about voting.

The Des Moines Register got an early copy of Newt Gingrich’s “21st Century Contract with America” which will call for Americans “to have new choices in how they buy health insurance, pay their income taxes and save for retirement.”

“Gingrich’s new contract calls for dozens of other ideas he has called breathtaking in scale and visionary. He vows to veto any tax increase. He wants speedier release of breakthrough drugs for brain diseases. He wants development of government land in Alaska and Nevada to bring in revenue.”

The plan will be formally unveiled later today.

“We’ll act accordingly.”

— New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner, quoted by the New Hampshire Union Leader, noting that Florida moving up its primary would not impact New Hampshire being the first presidential primary state.

There’s good news for Jon Huntsman in the latest Fox News poll: He’s got 4% support nationally, which more than the minimum threshold to qualify for the next Republican presidential debate on October 18.

Rudy Giuliani “dispatched a key emissary to New Hampshire on Wednesday to gauge their interest in his possible presidential bid,” the AP reports.

“Giuliani has visited the first-in-the-nation primary state four times already this year and advisers have maintained regular contact with potential staffers in the event he decides to seek the presidency. During his last trip in July, Giuliani said he wasn’t convinced any of the candidates were strong enough to defeat President Barack Obama. Until he is, he said he wouldn’t rule out a run of his own.”

“The surging Hispanic population in several states that figure to be crucial to the outcome of next year’s election” — particularly Florida, Nevada and New Mexico — “is prompting an early scramble by both parties to influence Hispanic voters,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The trend is particularly important to President Obama, who has seen his support among white voters sag, putting his hold on several swing states in danger. He is ramping up an urgent effort to win support from Latinos, while Republicans are trying to build on doubts among them about his stewardship of the economy.”

A new Fox News poll shows Mitt Romney leading the Republican presidential field with 23%, followed by Rick Perry at 19% and Herman Cain at 17%.

Since last month, Romney is up one point, Perry is down 10 points and Cain is up 6 points.

The remaining field: Newt Gingrich is at 11%, Ron Paul is at 6% and Michele Bachmann is at 3%.

David Frum: “Attention, Chris Christie fans. If you are looking for a Republican
nominee who could actually do the job of president, who does not repel
independent voters, who can survive a 90-minute debate without saying
anything foolish, why the hell not Mitt Romney?”