Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Republicans remain on track to win at least 51 Senate seats in November, which would allow them to take control of the chamber.”

“Democrats have broadly been holding their own in other key races they are defending, but the upside potential for Republicans to get beyond 51 is clearly there, and the size of an eventual Republican majority, if it materializes, looks to be determined in the Industrial North.”

“Republicans have had to play some defense in their own states, with Texas relatively close in polling and Nebraska hosting a surprisingly interesting contest. But we continue to favor them in all the states they currently hold.”

Punchbowl News: The Senate race in the center of the political universe.

Former Rep. Charlie Dent (R-PA) revealed he voted for Vice President Kamala Harris, Axios reports.

Dent is part of a growing army of Republican former members of Congress who have thrown their weight behind Harris rather than Trump.

“Despite an election defined by surprises — Kamala Harris’ entrance into the race, assassination attempts and geopolitical tensions — the US presidential race’s fiercest face-off remains Pennsylvania, a state that political strategists have long predicted would be decisive,” Bloomberg reports.

“Advertising data show Donald Trump and his allied super political action committees — which have been at a spending disadvantage for much of the race — are pouring cash into Pennsylvania, surpassing Harris and her allies in the past two weeks.”

“Elections are supposed to be decided at the ballot box,” Mother Jones reports.

“But this year, Donald Trump’s campaign appears to be trying to win on a different field of battle. With dozens of lawsuits already filed across the country, the Republicans are using state and federal courts as a key pillar of their strategy to retake the White House.”

“Former President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama, the former first lady, will make their first campaign appearances alongside Vice President Kamala Harris next week at rallies in Georgia and Michigan, the Harris campaign announced Friday,” the New York Times reports.

“Democrats have long waited to deploy the former first couple as surrogates for Ms. Harris. Nearly eight years after leaving the White House, they remain among the country’s most popular political figures, with high approval ratings from the precise groups of voters Ms. Harris is vying to reach in the campaign’s closing days, including suburban and Black Americans.”

Axios: Political titans Barack and Michelle Obama to join Harris on trail.

“Many billionaires have endorsed Donald Trump, but he’s mostly talking about one. A lot,” Bloomberg reports.

“Trump mentioned Elon Musk 82 times since the Tesla Inc. and SpaceX Chief Executive Officer publicly endorsed the former president in July through the end of September, compared to five times in the previous six months.”

Philadelphia Inquirer: Elon Musk talked crime and immigration as his pro-Trump efforts intensify in Pennsylvania.

“The word ‘fascist’ has hovered around former President Donald J. Trump from the moment he rode down his golden escalator in 2015 to warn of Mexican rapists and drug dealers in the memorable opening of his bid for president. But for most top Democrats, it was a provocative term loaded with dread, historical import and potential incitement — best left unsaid,” the New York Times reports.

“Until Vice President Kamala Harris this week made clear — again and again — that it would be just fine with her to use the word.”

Associated Press: Harris campaign features less talk of joy and more head-on digs at Trump as Election Day nears.

Playbook: “Recently, it’s become something of a pattern: Trump is scheduled for an interview with a neutral media outlet, the date nears and then … things fall apart.”

“It happened just this week to planned Trump sit-downs with NBC in Philadelphia and CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’ — and that’s on the heels of him backing out of a ‘60 Minutes’ episode earlier this month.”

“Why does this keep happening? Playbook has learned that yet another outlet was given an explanation by Trump’s team for why their own interview wasn’t coming to fruition: exhaustion.”

“Donald Trump’s onetime ambassador and former primary rival, Nikki Haley, is in talks to join him on the campaign trail in an attempt to win over disaffected Republicans,” The Bulwark reports.

“The details and dates for the joint appearance haven’t been fully worked out, but the likeliest scenario would put the two together at a town hall toward the end of the month, perhaps involving Fox News personality Sean Hannity.”

“Facing a yawning gender gap, Trump’s campaign has hosted five other town halls moderated by female political figures since August, but none with the stature of Haley.”

Tara Palmeri: “Despite the endless and voluminous and ubiquitous polling suggesting that we are careening toward a historically tight election, Donald Trump can only see an outcome in which he wins. Inside Mar-a-Lago, I’ve heard that Trump is uncharacteristically buoyant, almost cavalier, convinced that victory is his.”

“Yes, some in Trump’s orbit are concerned about displaced voters in North Carolina, but the only thing that the former president believes could cause him to fail, I’ve been told, is if the Republican National Committee election integrity unit—which includes at least one 2020 election denier—fails him.”

“Donald Trump and Melania Trump were all smiles as they made a rare public appearance together at the Al Smith charity dinner in New York City,” The Independent reports.

ABC News: Trump lashes out at Harris for missing traditional NYC Catholic charity event.

Nate Silver: “It was almost inevitably going to happen at some point, given how close the forecast has been to 50/50 since Kamala Harris took over for Joe Biden. But for the fourth time this cycle, the streams have crossed, and the nominal favorite in the race has changed. Thanks in part to one of the first high-quality national polls in weeks to show him ahead — yes, it’s from Fox News, but Fox News polling has no history of GOP bias — Donald Trump now has a 50.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.”

“That’s not much different from Trump’s 49.4 percent chances yesterday: the difference is that he wins the Electoral College an additional 1 time out of 125. But Trump is past the 50-yard line — and above Harris’s chances, which are 49.5 percent¹ — for the first time since Sept. 19.”

With just 19 days until the election, Donald Trump posted that Kamala Harris should be replaced by Joe Biden:

“Kamala should be investigated and forced off the Campaign, and Joe Biden allowed to take back his rightful place (He got 14 Million Primary Votes, she got none!).”

New York Times: “Some Trump advisers and allies say privately they are concerned that the dynamic may be repeating itself four years later. They worry that Mr. Trump’s impetuousness and scattershot style on the campaign trail needlessly risk victory in battleground states where the margin for error is increasingly narrow.”

“At a time when his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, has stepped up her attacks on him as “unstable,” Mr. Trump has struggled to publicly hone his message by veering off script and ramping up personal attacks on Ms. Harris that allies have urged him to rein in.”