Associated Press: “Leager told the AP he was recruited last year to run by operatives who said they were with the Patriots Run Project. That group promoted itself as a pro-Trump grassroots movement that attacked both parties and urged conservatives to run for office as independents.”
“The AP found the group was supported by Democratic firms and donors who worked to install several pro-Trump independent candidates in key House races.”
New polls from Quinnipiac:
“After nearly a quarter of a century representing the Tucson area in Congress, long-serving Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ) has announced that this year’s election will be his last,” the Arizona Republic reports.
Said Grijalva: “I think 22 years is pretty good. It’s a retirement age.”
Elaine Godfrey: “He can squeeze Trumpism through his own post-liberal-populist tube and produce something that looks like a coherent ideology.”
“Whereas Democrats are fond of mocking Vance for being socially awkward, Trump’s supporters see him as their very own Pete Buttigieg: a man with a theory of the case who is eager to defend it both on television and in real life. He is the sharp TV-sound-bite counterweight to Trump’s rambling rally speech.”
A new New York Post poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally among likely voters, 51% to 47%.
“The contest to replace Rishi Sunak as UK opposition leader suddenly appears wide open, after the two candidates long seen as the front-runners picked the worst possible moment to have campaign stumbles,” Bloomberg reports.
“Both Robert Jenrick, the bookmakers’ favorite, and former Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch faced intense criticism for comments they made during the Conservative Party’s annual conference in Birmingham this week.”
“Donald Trump swings wildly from topic to topic at his rallies, veering from tariffs to immigration policy to the problems with electric vehicles. But he tends to return to the same apocalyptic message,” the New York Times reports.
Said Trump: “You won’t have a country anymore. You’re pretty close to not having one. You better hope I get elected.”
“It is a forecast Mr. Trump has made repeatedly over the last year in speeches and interviews and on social media as he campaigns to return to the White House. Although he has long used fear as a tool to stir up his conservative base and sway undecided voters, Mr. Trump has taken his doomsday prophesying to a new extreme, increasing both its frequency and scope.”
“New York Mayor Eric Adams’ inner circle is getting even smaller,” Bloomberg reports.
“Tim Pearson, a controversial senior adviser to the first-term mayor, said late Monday that he would resign, becoming the fifth senior member of the administration to step down or announce plans to leave within the past month.”
John Pitney: “First, ‘likely’ does not mean “certain.” As we have already seen, the polls can err. Never Trump folks do not want to wake up on the day after the election to find that their wasted votes have helped him score a narrow upset in their state.”
“Second, the popular vote matters. Under any circumstance, Trump will almost certainly refuse to accept defeat. But if he loses big in the popular vote, as well as losing the electoral vote, it will be harder for him to claim that he is the people’s choice. The larger the margin, the weaker his claim.”
“For us Never Trumpers, as for everybody else, the 2024 election is a binary choice.”
“If you abstain or vote for somebody other than Kamala Harris, you effectively vote for Trump. Consider the consequences for our country. Don’t do something you’ll regret.”
“While Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is intensely focused on November 5, and the opportunity for his party to flip a few seats and retake the House, there’s another consequential date weighing on his mind,” Vanity Fair reports.
Said Jeffries: “One of the reasons it’s extremely important for House Democrats to win the majority in November is so that we have the gavel in our hands on January 3 and can certify the results of the presidential election on January 6.”
“Iran on Tuesday evening fired missiles on Israel, an attack that could spark a sharp escalation in the long-simmering conflict between Israel and Iran and tip the region further into turmoil and a widening war,” the New York Times reports.
“The salvo of missiles from Iran came a day after Israeli forces began a rare ground invasion of southern Lebanon aimed at crippling the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah there. Iran backs Hezbollah and Hamas, the two militias currently fighting Israel, as well as the Houthis in Yemen.”
Wall Street Journal: “Iran’s involvement risks a wider conflict that could stretch Israel’s military and air defenses and threatens to spark an all-out war in the Middle East that the Biden administration has tried to avoid.”
Jim Sciutto: “Trump lies, repeats the lie and then, as the right-wing information bubble becomes more impregnable, the lie becomes fact for a portion of the population.”
“This is not new but it has become the norm for Trump. And there is less and less push back from his party for either the lies, or personal insults, or threats, etc. It’s now a decade-long American story.”
Fortune: “Most investors who have at least $1 million in investable assets are planning to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, per a new report from wealth manager UBS. The actual breakdown: 57% of the 971 U.S. investors UBS surveyed last month said they’re opting for Harris; 43% are planning on Trump.”
“And yet, those same investors say former President Donald Trump would actually be better for the economy—narrowly.”
“Gov. Tim Walz is not known as a gifted debater,” Politico reports.
“Behind closed doors, the folksy, fun-loving governor, can be overly defensive when confronted about his mistakes, according to fellow Minnesota Democrats. During his first campaign in 2006, he also developed a reputation for speaking so quickly that an ally characterized him as ‘a bit manic.’ A former constituent and supporter recalled that at one of Walz’s first fundraisers in Minnesota that year, the vice presidential hopeful rambled for 45 minutes without notes and seemingly without taking a breath.”
“And ahead of his debate with JD Vance Tuesday — by far Walz’s most high profile event of the presidential campaign — some of his allies privately say they worry he won’t live up to Vice President Kamala Harris’ debate performance against former President Donald Trump.”
Russia’s attempts to influence the election in favor of Donald Trump are accelerating, adding to a sea of misinformation about immigration and his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, despite U.S. efforts to blunt the onslaught with indictments, seizures and public warnings, the Washington Post reports.
Sen. Jon Tester (D) and challenger Tim Sheehy (R) debated last night:
TESTER: If you really feel this way about Native Americans, you ought to apologize for the statement you made about them that were totally inaccurate. But yet you won’t.
SHEEHY: I come from the military… We make insensitive jokes and probably off-color sometimes.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.