Trump Holds Solid Lead Over Biden in Georgia
A new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll in Georgia finds Donald Trump with a solid 45% to 37% lead over Joe Biden.
Key takeaway: “Biden is hurt by soft support among many Democratic and independent voters who were crucial to his narrow 2020 victory over Trump in Georgia, including 10% of Black voters who say they don’t plan to vote in the White House race at all.”
Even the Battle for Second Turned Out Well for Trump
Nate Cohn: “Not only did he win in a landslide anyway, but his 30-point margin of victory set a record for a contested Iowa Republican caucus.”
“Better still for Mr. Trump, neither Mr. DeSantis nor Ms. Haley posted a strong second-place showing that might have bestowed clear momentum for future races. If anything, Mr. DeSantis’s second-place finish might dampen Ms. Haley’s momentum heading into New Hampshire.”
Trump Could Wrap Up Nomination By End of February
The Economist: “If Mr Trump were to win in New Hampshire he would still need to wait until Super Tuesday, at the beginning of March, to build an insurmountable lead in the delegate count. In political terms, though, if he wins in New Hampshire and comes first in South Carolina’s primary on February 24th, beating Ms Haley in her home state, the contest would be over.”
“Mr Trump would then be the de facto Republican nominee when he is due to appear as the defendant in court in Washington, DC, on March 4th, accused of attempting to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election.”
Nikki Haley Claims It’s a ‘Two-Person Race’
Nikki Haley declared that the Republican presidential primary was now “a two person race,” despite coming third in the Iowa caucus behind Ron DeSantis.
New York Times: “Her disappointing third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses on Monday showed that for all the hype, her momentum ultimately stalled in the face of a Republican electorate still in the thrall of the former president. That included not only Mr. Trump’s working-class base but also the bastions of college-educated Republicans in and around Des Moines that she was supposed to dominate.”
Los Angeles Times: “Why Nikki Haley’s best — and perhaps last — chance to beat Trump is next week in New Hampshire.”
Breaking Down Trump’s Iowa Win
NBC News: “Trump’s best showing came from caucusgoers who didn’t have a college degree (67%), those who identified as very conservative (61%), voters over 65 years old (58%) and white evangelicals (53%).”
“His showing among those groups was up from 2016, when he only received support from roughly two in 10 voters in each group. His support among white evangelicals alone when up 32 points, from 21% in 2016 to 53% in 2024.”
“Trump also won among caucus participants who said they valued a candidate who fights for people like them (82%) and those who made up their mind on which candidate they would support earlier than this month (66%).”
Biden Says Trump Is ‘Clear’ GOP Frontrunner
President Biden called Donald Trump after his Iowa caucuses win Monday the “clear” Republican primary frontrunner, saying in a donations appeal “this election was always going to be you and me vs. extreme MAGA Republicans,” Axios reports.
Can Anyone Stop Trump’s March to the Nomination?
Dan Balz: “After a dip in his standing after the 2022 midterm elections, when Republicans underperformed expectations and Trump’s favored candidates fared badly, the former president quickly retook command of the party and the nomination contest. Ironically he was aided by four indictments in four jurisdictions, including two cases involving his efforts to subvert the results of the 2020 election.”
“Trump wore those felony counts — 91 in total — as badges of honor, and Republican voters responded by flocking to him. The indictments presage a general-election campaign in which courtrooms will compete with campaign rallies to define the personalities of the two likely candidates as well as one of the major choices for voters, which is whether they view Trump as a threat to democracy.”
Axios: “The astonishing speed and sweep of former President Trump’s victory in the Iowa caucuses last night delivered a massive wakeup call to Republican skeptics still dreaming of a post-MAGA world.”
White House Swatted
“A fake 911 call that the White House was on fire sent emergency vehicles to the complex Monday morning, when President Joe Biden and his family were at Camp David,” the AP reports.
“Fire engines and other emergency vehicles responded to a report just after 7 a.m. that the White House was ablaze and a person was trapped inside.”
Manchin Says He’s Meeting with Biden
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) told a private event in Connecticut that he plans to meet with Biden this week in an attempt to move the president “to the center,” Fox Business reports.
If he doesn’t, Manchin said he’d consider teaming up with No Labels to mount a third-party presidential challenge.
Local Officials on Edge Ahead of 2024 Vote
“Election officials across the U.S. are confident they can overcome foreign and domestic hacking threats to run a secure election this November. They’re far less sanguine that Americans will believe them,” Politico reports.
“And they’re terrified of the backlash from those who don’t accept the results.”
Menendez and His Wife Want Separate Trials
“Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and his wife, Nadine Menendez, were both charged last fall in a broad federal corruption case in which they were accused of accepting cash and gold bribes,” the New York Times reports.
“Now their marriage itself is the centerpiece of a new legal argument.”
“Both Mr. and Ms. Menendez are seeking to split their case and have separate trials.”
Former MI6 Chief Says Trump Is a Threat to the U.K.
The former head of the UK’s secret intelligence service has warned the return of Donald Trump to the White House could pose a “political threat” to Britain, Sky News reports.
Negotiators Have a $78 Billion Tax Deal
“House and Senate negotiators have agreed on a roughly $78 billion framework for a package of tax benefits aimed at businesses and low-income families,“ Punchbowl News reports.
“The two sides expect to roll it out this morning.”
“The question now is whether Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-OR) and House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) can build enough support to get their deal through both chambers. It’s iffy. More on that below.”
Politico: “The roughly $80 billion package set to be unveiled Tuesday would also undo restrictions on a trio of popular business tax breaks, as well as beef up subsidies for affordable housing and disaster assistance.”
It’s Hard to See a Path for DeSantis
New York Times: “Mr. DeSantis checked every box that would usually be required to carry Iowa. He visited all 99 counties, stopped by tiny towns and pubs, and took questions from locals and the press. He won over Governor Reynolds and put to use the vast network of the evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats. His super PAC spent tens of millions of dollars on a door-knocking program of unrivaled scale.”
“He tried to run to Mr. Trump’s right — portraying him as insufficiently conservative — and the strategy failed. There simply weren’t enough Republicans who wanted to move on from Mr. Trump.”
“Now, he heads to nominating states that are far less hospitable and where he enjoys none of the ideological advantages he had in Iowa.”
Ramaswamy Suspends Campaign and Endorses Trump
“Vivek Ramaswamy on Monday night announced he’s dropping out of the 2024 GOP presidential race following a disappointing showing in the Iowa caucuses and endorsing former President, the latest announcement to winnow down the primary field as Trump dominates,” The Hill reports.
Why Trump’s Victory Was Called So Soon
Politico: “Typically, results aren’t released in (most) states until polls close — and the Associated Press generally will wait until voters are done voting before calling a victory.”
“But Iowa is not a typical election. The caucuses are run by the state party, and not local election officials. With no uniform poll closing time — caucuses started at 7 p.m. local time, but smaller precincts wrapped up much quicker than big ones — the state GOP started releasing results as soon as they came in.”
“Tonight, decision desks relied on the entrance poll, and a few very early caucus results, to confirm what we all knew going into the day — Trump was going to win.”
Trump Wins Iowa Caucuses
“Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses Monday, a crucial victory at the outset of the Republican primary that reinforces the former president’s bond with his party’s voters even as he faces extraordinary legal challenges that could complicate his bid to return to the White House,” the AP reports.
“The magnitude of Trump’s success is still coming into focus, but the former president’s supporters endured a historic and life-threatening cold snap to participate in caucus meetings that unfolded in schools, churches and community centers across the state.”
