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Supreme Court Rebuffs Trump On Transgender Inmates

October 21, 2026 · 12:32 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Supreme Court on Wednesday left intact a lower court decision that blocked the Trump administration from enforcing a new Bureau of Prisons policy that would end certain medical interventions for transgender inmates,” CBS News reports.

GOP Super PAC Ad Targets Troy Jackson’s Family

October 21, 2026 · 12:23 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Republican super PAC that has spent heavily to reelect Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is running a country song on Maine radio that mocks her opponent, Troy Jackson (D), for having children with his second cousin,” the Bangor Daily News reports.

“The ad from the Senate Leadership Fund, which surfaced Tuesday, calls Jackson ‘weird,’ a ‘freak’ and a ‘creep’ because ‘he has two kids with his cousin.'”

And the refrain: “If he’ll screw his own family, he’ll screw yours too.”

Texas Republicans Aren’t Debating

October 21, 2026 · 12:20 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“With early voting already underway, we’re likely to close out this election cycle without a single debate between top-of-the-ticket candidates,” Texas Monthly reports.

JD Vance May Face Pressure Over Trump’s Corruption

October 21, 2026 · 12:19 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Vice President JD Vance’s role as President Donald Trump’s chief defender poses a growing challenge as the administration faces mounting perceptions of inside dealing and corruption,” NewsNation reports.

“Vance on Monday said the idea of Trump using the White House for personal enrichment was ‘laughable,’ and during a CBS News town hall over the weekend, he said he doesn’t see evidence of corruption. That puts him increasingly out of step with most voters, including an expanding segment of Republicans.”

Fox News: Vance reveals the Trump dilemma that could complicate his 2028 White House ambitions.

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Ramaswamy’s Self-Inflicted October Surprise

October 21, 2026 · 11:59 am ET · Leave a Comment

Talking PointsVivek Ramaswamy (R) seems determined to prove that his biggest political liability might be himself.

And his latest miscalculation has turned into an October surprise of his own making.

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Another Bonus Quote of the Day

October 21, 2026 · 11:46 am ET · Leave a Comment

“You don’t turn the Titanic around overnight.”

— Vice President JD Vance, in a campaign speech in Ohio.

George Bush’s Brother Voted for James Talarico

October 21, 2026 · 11:45 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Neil Bush, the brother of former President George W. Bush and son of former President George H.W. Bush, said Tuesday that he voted for Democrat James Talarico in the Texas Senate race while criticizing President Trump and ‘those who have enabled him’ for causing ‘enormous damage to the Republican Party,'” CBS News reports.

Said Bush: “My vote was motivated by two things: deep concern about Ken Paxton’s record and genuine admiration for the character and principles I see in James Talarico.”

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Another Sign of a Coming Blue Wave

October 21, 2026 · 11:20 am ET · Leave a Comment

Talking PointsNearly every poll suggests Democrats are heading toward a massive wave election in November.

Yet many Democrats remain skeptical. After being burned in 2024, they’re understandably reluctant to believe favorable polling numbers again.

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Talking Points is my analysis of the political landscape, written only for Political Wire members.

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Why Trump Is Furious at Ukraine

October 21, 2026 · 11:18 am ET · Leave a Comment

The Atlantic: “Trump’s war in Iran has appeared to throttle Republicans’ chances in the midterms; the unending conflict, and the resulting surge in oil and gas prices, has eroded the GOP’s poll numbers and fueled Democrats’ hopes of taking both chambers of Congress.”

“Stymied in his efforts to bring that war to a close, Trump recently shifted his focus to resolving the Ukraine conflict, in part to bring fuel prices down. But the way he’s chosen to try to do that has provided his fellow Republicans with a nasty October surprise. In a first for a U.S. president, Trump has sided with a traditional adversary, Russia, over a democracy that is not only fighting for its existence but also acting as a bulwark against a wider war. Trump’s diesel deal with Putin will have a negligible impact on American energy prices, but it’s a financial lifeline for Moscow.”

“Trump has demanded an energy cease-fire—he even announced one earlier this month that had no basis in reality—yet has focused his ire entirely on Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries. He blames those strikes for the rise in energy prices while ignoring the real culprit, Iran’s ability to defy the United States and close the Strait of Hormuz. He’s convinced himself, three people close to him have told us, that Ukraine’s attacks on the refineries are, in part, meant to undermine Republicans’ chances next month—and, by extension, Trump.”

Maine’s Senate Race Isn’t About Troy Jackson

October 21, 2026 · 10:59 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Troy Jackson knows he wasn’t Maine Democrats’ first choice to challenge incumbent Sen. Susan Collins. And he knows he isn’t the most charismatic candidate to grace a Senate ballot,” the Washington Post reports.

“But the Democratic nominee in one of the country’s highest-profile races also knows that may not matter.”

“As Jackson’s contentious contest with Collins reaches its final days, Democrats in Maine are acknowledging — and in some ways celebrating — that the race isn’t about their accidental nominee.”

“They are instead banking on rage with President Donald Trump — and deep-seated resentment over Collins’s role in advancing his policy goals — to deny the 73-year-old Republican senator a sixth term.”

The Bill for Trumpism Comes Due

October 21, 2026 · 10:49 am ET · Leave a Comment

David Frum: “The budget deficit for the fiscal year that ended on September 30 is about $2 trillion, or about $160 billion more than in Joe Biden’s last complete year as president. Next year’s deficit is likely to be even bigger. When Trump spoke of eliminating the national debt, total debt stood at nearly $35 trillion. On the current trajectory, total debt could reach $45 trillion by 2028.”

“To put that another way: The U.S. debt reached $10 trillion for the first time during the financial crisis of 2008. That once seemed a crushing burden. Now an extra $10 trillion in debt is the cost of just four years of Trump’s fiscal recklessness.”

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

October 21, 2026 · 10:43 am ET · Leave a Comment

“I think there are a lot of races right now just looking at the polling that are up for grabs. I mean you could call them jump balls, however you want to say it. They’re margin of error races, and there are some that are maybe a little out of the margin. But I do think the polling right now, like it has been in past elections, under-reflects the Republican vote.”

— Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), quoted by Fox News.

Heckler’s Dad Got $250,000 to Campaign Against El-Sayed

October 21, 2026 · 10:37 am ET · Leave a Comment

Mother Jones: “The guy who tried and failed to catch Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed with a gotcha question about his supposed loyalty to the Muslim Brotherhood is reportedly the son of a Republican strategist who received $250,000 last month to campaign against El-Sayed.”

Peggy Flanagan Inflated Her Academic Record

October 21, 2026 · 10:04 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Peggy Flanagan said she ‘graduated Phi Beta Kappa’ while arguing a decade ago for legislation to encourage greater teacher diversity in Minnesota’s public schools,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Now the state’s lieutenant governor and Democratic U.S. Senate nominee, Flanagan was a Minnesota House member when she said college teaching diversity transformed her from a high-school graduate with a 1.75 grade-point average to a University of Minnesota honors student.”

Said Flanagan in 2016: “Everything changed, there was a switch, something clicked. I graduated Phi Beta Kappa because I saw myself reflected in my teacher and I saw myself reflected in my curriculum.”

“A commencement program for Flanagan’s class of 2002 doesn’t list her as an honors student, although it did highlight those with GPAs of 3.5 or higher. The university’s current GPA threshold for Phi Beta Kappa is 3.65 for a senior.”

Update: Peggy Flanagan proves Phi Beta Kappa membership.

Trump Approval at 29%

October 21, 2026 · 9:43 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new American Research Group poll finds Donald Trump’s approval at 29%, while 67% disapprove.

Trump Approval
Approve 29%
 
Disapprove 67%
 
American Research Group poll · adults · ±3%

Trump Has Lost Young Men

October 21, 2026 · 9:39 am ET · Leave a Comment

Bloomberg: “Men between 18 and 30 years of age who are determined to vote now say they prefer a generic Democratic congressional candidate to a GOP alternative by a 57%-40% margin, according to a Cygnal poll released late last month. And only a third of respondents said they were extremely determined to vote in the upcoming midterms.”

“That represents a sharp reversal for a group credited for returning President Donald Trump to the White House in 2024, and could prove a death knell to GOP hopes of retaining the Senate across key states like Michigan, Ohio and Texas.”

“It’s especially notable because of the broad investment the Trump administration made catering to the demographic.”

Becerra Holds Commanding Lead in California

October 21, 2026 · 9:36 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new Emerson College Polling poll in California finds Xavier Becerra (D) leading Steve Hilton (R) in the governor’s race, 60% to 33%.

California Governor’s Race
Xavier Becerra (D) 60%
 
Steve Hilton (R) 33%
 
Emerson College Polling poll · likely voters · ±3%

Trump Spends $343K On Cameras to Monitor His Projects

October 21, 2026 · 9:19 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The Trump administration is spending at least $343,100 on video cameras to monitor several of President Donald Trump’s construction projects, federal records show, after the president falsely accused ‘vandals’ of causing the widespread damage to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool,” the Washington Post reports.

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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