Nate Silver: “Kamala Harris leads by 3.8 points in our national polling average and would be a clear favorite in an election held today — but you can see the effects of the model’s convention bounce adjustment in why November’s result is still projected at basically 50/50. This is the period when we’d expect Harris to be at the very height of her convention bounce, and the over/under line for polls conducted during this period is something like 4 or 4.5 points; better numbers than that will tend to help her in the forecast, while worse ones will tend to hurt her.”

“The model expects the convention bounce to dissipate over the course of roughly three weeks. So a poll showing Harris ahead by 4 points in a week or two would likely be a net positive for her. But for right now, the bar is set pretty high.”

Democratic strategist James Carville told the New Republic that Donald Trump  “knows he’s in deep trouble” — and it’s “driving him crazy.”

Said Carville: “He has a shark-like survival instinct. And he knows that he’s not having the same effect as he used to. He knows that Harris has become what he’s always wanted to be, is the kind of hot item…. He’s not the new kid on the block anymore, and he’s struggling to regain that.”

Jonathan Chait: “The level of drama and strategery surrounding Kamala Harris’s plans to schedule her first major news interview after becoming the Democratic presidential nominee is reaching concerning levels. We are quickly getting to a point where Harris’s media strategy itself is becoming a significant narrative of her campaign, a fact that undercuts her goals.”

“Eugene Daniels reports that the campaign is deliberating which reporter to grant the big interview to. I think the whole premise that Harris can solve this by doing a big interview is misguided. She should be doing a lot of interviews.”

ABC News: As she hits campaign trail, Harris expected to face tough questions in 1st promised sit-down interview.

“A super PAC started by supporters of Donald Trump is launching what is expected to be a $60 million advertising campaign to boost the former president’s campaign right after Labor Day,” the New York Times reports.

“The media buy is the latest addition to an already busy and costly advertising season that is set to see over a half-billion dollars spent to shape voters’ final impressions of Vice President Kamala Harris and Mr. Trump. It comes from a super PAC called Right for America, which has raised tens of millions of dollars but waited until the fall rush to air any advertising.”

“Donald Trump plans to name his former rival, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Tulsi Gabbard, a one-time Democrat, as honorary co-chairs of a presidential transition team that will help him select the policies and personnel of any second Trump administration,” the New York Times reports.

A new Florida Atlantic University poll finds Kamala Harris has taken the lead over Donald Trump nationally among likely voters, 49% to 45%.

Key finding: “Harris has made significant inroads among Independent voters, now capturing 48% of their support, compared to Trump’s 35%. This marks a notable shift from July when Independents were more evenly split, with 45% backing Harris and 43% supporting Trump.”

This poll was taken entirely after the Democratic convention.

A Noble Predictive Insights poll in Arizona finds Donald Trump edging Kamala Harris in a multi-candidate race, 44% to 43%.

In a head-to-head match up, Trump leads 47% to 44%.

A new ad from Kamala Harris, part of a $150 million ad campaign for the month of August, focuses on housing.

“Sen. J.D. Vance will deliver remarks on the economy on Tuesday in Big Rapids, Michigan, at an outdoor farm — during which he will speak from behind bulletproof glass, the first time there has ever been one at a solo event for Vance,” ABC News reports.

“It’s similar to the new safety measures in place for former President Donald Trump’s outdoor rallies following his assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July.”

“I was sort of like a hot guy. I was hot as a pistol. I think I was hotter than I am now, and I became president. Okay. I don’t know. I said to somebody, was I hotter before or hotter now? I don’t know. Who the hell knows?”

— Donald Trump, at a campaign rally.

Jonathan Bernstein: “The way I talk about is that all politicians are ambitious, but the content of that ambition varies, so that one politician might be interested in one or more policy goals, another in fighting for a group, and another mainly in enjoying ‘power’ — that is, bossing people around. Yet another may just be chiefly interested in the general idea of public service. Or many other possible things.”

“Whatever the content of their ambition may be, at first blush they (again, usually) try hard to win elections because winning office is a necessary step to every other goal. So as long as winning doesn’t directly conflict with the content of their ambition, we can usually expect politicians to adjust their policy agenda so that they have a better chance of winning. Which means, all things being equal, that they’ll support popular policies when they run for office — and attempt to achieve popular outcomes such as peace and prosperity if they hold office. That’s good! In a democracy, we want politicians to support popular policies and work to achieve popular outcomes!”

“Even if that means they can fairly be described as ‘shift-shaping opportunists.'”

General Larry Ellis, a retired four-star general who served in that rank under George W. Bush’s administration, is endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris,  ABC News reports.

Said Ellis: “Donald Trump has demonstrated that he is wholly and dangerously unfit for Commander-in-Chief. He praises and emboldens our enemies that seek to weaken our country. He has denigrated our brave men and women in uniform.”

Ellis adds that if any service member were to ever “act just a bit like” Trump, “then he or she would be immediately removed from the leadership position, admonished, and separated from military service.”