“A political organization tied to House Republican leadership is pouring millions of dollars into polling and advertising in a new effort to fix a nagging problem for the party: Many of President Trump’s voters don’t show up for midterm elections, when he isn’t on the ballot,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Central to the Republican strategy is finding ways to sell voters on the broad tax-and- spending legislative package the GOP-controlled Congress narrowly passed last week.”
Paul Krugman: “These tariffs are going to hurt South Korea and Japan, although they’ll hurt U.S. consumers even more. So why didn’t Korean and Japanese negotiators make big enough concessions to satisfy Trump?”
“Because there was nothing for them to concede. South Korea has had a free trade agreement with the United States since 2012, so most U.S. exports to Korea face zero tariffs. Japan, like other wealthy nations, has very low tariffs on most goods. Neither country, then, was in a position to offer big tariff reductions, because their tariffs were already minimal.”
“Independent populist Dan Osborn, whose insurgent Senate campaign seriously threatened one of Nebraska’s Republicans from securing a third term last year, is now taking on GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts — one of the wealthiest members of Congress,” Politico reports.
Playbook: “The Kamala Harris campaign was presented with a series of memos in its final stages setting out a clear strategy for winning over independent and ‘soft’ Republican votes — but chose a strikingly different path, a new book out today on the 2024 campaign reveals.”
“The confidential documents, written in the final weeks of the campaign by Dem official Maria Comella, warned the current strategy was not working…”
“The memos urged Harris to get herself onto the Joe Rogan podcast, and warned her not to make Jan.6 the final focus of her campaign with a speech at the Ellipse.”
Playbook: “Anger over last night’s U-turn is already starting to flow. Trump’s repeated pledges to end America’s involvement in overseas wars were a big part of his appeal to the MAGA base, and so his decision to start rearming Ukraine — even with purely defensive weapons — is not landing well. At all. Just check out the replies to posts like this — from a one-million-followers-plus X account — when the news first broke last night. You can expect MAGA anger to swell throughout the day.”
“This last point takes on a greater salience when you consider where Trump’s base is currently at. Because this decision follows 24 hours of absolute MAGA outrage at the Trump administration’s announcement on Monday evening that it will not be releasing any more information on the Jeffrey Epstein case; that there never in fact was a ‘client list’ or a bunch of famous people being blackmailed — and that the case is essentially now closed.”
“That announcement has devastated MAGA supporters who have long been convinced the U.S. government is protecting powerful pals of Epstein… It’s honestly hard to overstate the level of MAGA rage, given these avowed truth-seekers are literally the Deep State now.”
Grok, the chatbot developed by Elon Musk’s xAI, was updated over the weekend with instructions to “assume subjective viewpoints sourced from the media are biased” and “not shy away from making claims which are politically incorrect,” The Verge reports.
Alex Jones broke down in tears in a video reacting to a new Trump administration memo about Jeffrey Epstein, asserting that there was no incriminating client list.
Said Jones: “I just really need the Trump administration to succeed, and to save this country, and they’re doing so much good. And then for them to do something like this, tears my guts out.”
He added: “I need to defend Trump, he’s being lied about. And then this type of shit happens, I don’t even know what to say.”
For members: A Conspiracy Theory That Won’t Die
Trump Media launched its TV streaming platform, Truth+, globally on Monday, featuring the cable channel Newsmax to support the company’s expansion, Reuters reports.
Punchbowl News: “Trump and GOP congressional leaders got the big spectacle they wanted on July 4. A White House signing ceremony for the One Big Beautiful Bill, lots of flags, fireworks, even a B-2 bomber flyover. Speaker Mike Johnson gave Trump the gavel he used to close out the House vote.”
“But now comes the reality — and the headlines back home. Medicaid cuts of nearly $1 trillion. No extension of Obamacare subsidies. Tens of billions of dollars in SNAP cuts. Governors may be forced to call special legislative sessions to deal with gaping holes in their own budgets.”
“While the biggest federal cuts won’t come until after the midterm elections, the negatives for the GOP reconciliation megabill may overwhelm any political boost that Trump and Republicans get from extending and expanding the 2017 Trump tax cuts, at least in the short term. That means vulnerable GOP lawmakers get hit now, with the worst coming later. Republicans will need to turn around public perception of the OBBB, even in their own party.”
“The IRS said on Monday that churches and other houses of worship should be allowed to endorse political candidates to their congregations, carving out an exemption in a decades-old ban on political activity by tax-exempt nonprofits,” the New York Times reports.
“President Donald Trump said Monday the U.S. will have to send more weapons to Ukraine, just days after ordering a pause in critical weapons deliveries to Kyiv,” the AP reports.
“The comments by Trump appeared to be an abrupt change in posture after the Pentagon announced last week that it would hold back delivering to Ukraine some air defense missiles, precision-guided artillery and other weapons amid U.S. concerns that its own stockpiles have declined too much.”
Said Trump: “We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves.”
Wall Street Journal: “President Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that he wasn’t responsible for a halt in weapons shipments to Kyiv, signaling U.S. openness to continuing military aid for Ukraine.”
“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that he had sent a letter to the Nobel Prize Committee to nominate President Donald Trump for the peace prize,” Fox News reports.
“President Trump said the United States and Iranian officials will be meeting soon, returning to diplomacy after the U.S. bombed Iran’s nuclear sites and the country retaliated,” USA Today reports.
“President Trump’s former national security adviser Mike Waltz is scheduled to appear before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee next Tuesday or Wednesday for his confirmation hearing to be ambassador to the UN,” Axios reports.
“Waltz’s hearing will give Democrats an opportunity to put Trump’s foreign policy on trial and grill the former Florida congressman and Green Beret on everything from his role in Signalgate to the White House’s long-term goals on Iran and China.”
“When a hurricane hit North Carolina last year, Donald J. Trump claimed without evidence that the Biden administration was avoiding helping residents in Republican areas. When wildfires burned through Los Angeles earlier this year, Mr. Trump excoriated local and state Democrats for the calamity, making false assertions about water use policy,” the New York Times reports.
“But after a catastrophic flood that tore through Texas last week, leaving at least 100 dead, Mr. Trump cautioned against casting blame.”
Punchbowl News: “Trump can’t resist being in the middle of everything. Trump sees his presidency as driving the news, always being at the center of attention. Trump wants everyone — Congress, foreign leaders, the American people – to react to him, not the other way around. It’s his greatest asset in many ways, yet also his greatest vulnerability.”
“On that point, Trump announced on Monday that he was ready to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea. While the new tariffs don’t kick in until Aug. 1 – giving Trump time to make a deal, naturally – this renewed trade war with two of the United States’ most important trading partners and allies made global financial markets swoon…”
“The sheer unpredictability of Trump’s direction and ultimate goals in this trade war and what it means for the U.S. and global economies is a problem for him. Trump likes to keep opponents off balance, yet markets crave predictability.”
President Trump lashed out at Brazil for the “terrible thing” it’s doing to its former president, Jair Bolsonaro, who is accused of running a criminal spy ring.
Said Trump: “I have watched, as has the World, as they have done nothing but come after him, day after day, night after night, month after month, year after year! He is not guilty of anything, except having fought for THE PEOPLE.”
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Thank you for reading!
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.