Israeli intelligence believes U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites caused “very significant” damage, offering a more optimistic picture of the operations’ success than the leaked U.S. assessment, Axios reports.
It’s Still the Economy, Stupid
Playbook: “Mamdani has promised free buses, free child care, city-run grocery stores, rent freezes, wealth taxes and more. And whatever you think of those kinds of pledges, there’s a running theme that plenty of Dems believe was the real lesson from last night: Mamdani won by focusing relentlessly on the cost of living — the issue poll after poll shows voters care about most…”
“Of course, one other lesson centrist Dems might like to take away is that choosing dismally flawed establishment candidates to run against outsider populist opponents — whether on the left or the right — really isn’t working out too well for them. (If they need another reminder, the anniversary of that CNN debate is this coming weekend.)”
Trump Denies Former Biden Aides Executive Privilege
“The Trump White House has decided that nine former senior Biden aides won’t be protected by executive privilege during their interviews for a congressional probe into Joe Biden’s mental fitness for office,” Axios reports.
“The White House’s move means the former Biden aides will have to answer questions about their private conversations with Biden, unless they or Biden try to challenge the decision in court.”
A New Political Star Emerges
“The national Democratic establishment on Tuesday night struggled to absorb the startling ascent of a democratic socialist in New York City who embraced a progressive economic agenda and diverged from the party’s dominant position on the Middle East,” the New York Times reports.
“As elections go, Tuesday’s party primary for mayor was a thunderbolt: New York voters turned away from a well-funded familiar face and famous name, former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, and in doing so made a generational and ideological break with the party’s mainstream. They turned to a 33-year-old, three-term state assemblyman, Zohran Mamdani, who ran on an optimistic message about affordability and the rising cost of living that has eluded many national Democrats.”
Playbook: “Every political chat group and social media feed across America was lit last night, and with good reason — this is a result sending shockwaves through the Democratic establishment and far beyond. It marks a stunning victory for the left flank of a fractured party still searching for direction after last November’s presidential defeat, boosting the voices demanding a more radical policy platform to take on Donald Trump’s GOP.”
Generational Turnover Is Coming to the Democrats
Nate Silver: “In the mayor’s race, Cuomo trotted out the same boilerplate, tired themes, including a heavy emphasis on Trump, that had also failed Clinton, Biden (in 2024) and Harris rather than the local issues that mayoral races often turn upon.”
“The extent to which this might be a leading indicator for national politics, and particularly the 2028 presidential nomination race, is an open question. But I think you could go too far in dismissing it, and some fellow center-left types probably will. New York City is a weird place, but it’s also an exceptionally diverse place, home to every imaginable ethnic group, more conservatives in the Democratic primary electorate than you might think, and plenty of voters who were probably closer to Cuomo on the issues but who just didn’t like his vibe, or who liked Mamdani’s.”
“So Zohran thoroughly earned the win, and Cuomo and the Democratic establishment thoroughly earned the loss. And even if they finally take the hint, generational turnover in the Democratic Party is coming whether they like it or not.”
Republicans Hate the Reconciliation Bill
Punchbowl News: “There are nine days until July 4 — Republicans’ deadline to pass President Donald Trump’s ‘one big, beautiful bill.’”
“But there’s a problem — It seems like lots of Republicans loathe the GOP’s massive reconciliation bill. The complaints span the party’s ideological spectrum — and they’re only getting louder.”
Cease-Fire Appears to Hold
“President Trump responded with anger when there was continued fire between Israel and Iran after a U.S.-brokered cease-fire went into effect,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“But in subsequent hours, there were initial signs that the cease-fire might be holding.”
Andrew Cuomo Concedes Primary to Zohran Mamdani
Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo conceded New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary to Zohran Mamdani as the 33-year old member of the state Assembly had a significant lead in the race Tuesday night, the AP reports.
Cuomo, in a speech to supporters, said Mamdani “won” and that “we are going to take a look and make some decisions.”
New York Times: “Even with a loss to Mamdani, Cuomo could still run as an independent in November. He has filed to run in November on an independent line he created called Fight and Deliver. Cuomo has been unclear when asked if he would run as an independent if he lost the primary.”
New York City Mayoral Primary Results
Polls close at 9 p.m. ET. Follow as the results roll in here.
New York Times: “By Tuesday night, the city is certain to know which candidate is in the lead… But because New Yorkers will be voting under a ranked-choice system, unless one candidate receives more than 50 percent of first-choice votes outright, the final result will not be determined until July 1. That is when voters’ backup choices are scheduled to be tabulated.”
Former Astronaut Launches Texas Senate Run
“Terry Virts, a retired NASA astronaut, is not a household name, even in his home of Houston. But the way he announced his campaign on Monday for Senator John Cornyn’s seat in Texas, taking a swing at both political parties, may be blazing a trail for Democratic candidates in 2026,” the New York Times reports.
“Mr. Virts’ official announcement video was revealing in two ways. It reflected the growing hunger among Democratic outsiders to take on President Trump. And it underscored how such outsiders believe the best way to do that is to also take on the Democratic leaders in Washington.”
Iran Strike Briefing Is Abruptly Cancelled
Time: “A highly anticipated classified briefing for members of Congress on the United States’ surprise bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities was abruptly rescheduled on Tuesday morning, infuriating Democratic lawmakers and fueling suspicions that the White House is withholding critical information—including early assessments suggesting that the strikes may have only modestly delayed Iran’s nuclear program.”
“The result was a day of visible disarray in Washington. As Trump vented on social media and to reporters, Democrats expressed alarm at his strategy. By day’s end, many were still seeking basic answers: Was the ceasefire truly in effect? Had the strikes achieved its intended goal? And why, after risking regional war, was the Administration refusing to provide them with answers?”
Miller Has Stake in Company Helping with Deportations
Rolling Stone: “The president’s chief immigration hawk has a substantial amount of stock in Palantir, one of ICE’s most prominent contractors.”
Majority Disapprove of Iran Airstrikes
CBS News: “As the public assesses the U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, at least three things are in play.”
“One, there’s a largely bipartisan view that any Iranian nuclear weapon would pose a threat to the U.S. Second, there are bipartisan concerns that the U.S. could get involved in a wider war with Iran. And third, there are differing perceptions of just how effective those strikes will ultimately prove to be.”
“Amid that, it is Republicans, including MAGA Republicans, who overwhelmingly back the airstrikes, and they comprise the bulk of those who do. For the rest of the public, however — and netting out to a majority overall — there is disapproval of those airstrikes and still-greater concern about a potential wider war.”
‘Big Balls’ Resigned
Edward “Big Balls” Coristine, one of the first technologists hired as part of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, is no longer working for the federal government, Wired reports.
Matt Gaetz Scolded by His Mother for Criticizing Trump
Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) was caught on camera getting scolded by his mother over his recent criticism of President Trump.
Iran’s Nuclear Program Set Back Only a Few Months
“A preliminary classified U.S. report says the American bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities but did not collapse their underground buildings,” the New York Times reports.
“The early findings conclude that the strikes over the weekend set back Iran’s nuclear program by only a few months.”
Hasset Vows Trade Deals Coming After Bill Passes
Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett said the administration is waiting to announce trade deals until after President Trump’s megabill passes Congress, The Hill reports.
The Big, Beautiful Panic Begins
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) warned GOP senators during a closed-door meeting Tuesday that the Senate reconciliation bill could prompt major electoral losses similar to how Obamacare hampered Democrats, Punchbowl News reports.
Separately, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) disagreed noting: “I know a lot of us are hearing from people back home about Medicaid. But they’ll get over it.”
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