Patrick Ruffini has released a “way too early” model forecasting the strength of possible 2028 Democratic presidential candidates.
The first iteration has Gavin Newsom ahead in a seven candidate field with a 29.7% chance of winning across 10,000 simulations. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez comes in second place with an 19.5% chance, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 13.4%, Josh Shapiro at 12.2%, Gretchen Whitmer at 11.3%, Cory Booker at 9.0%, and Andy Beshear at 5.1%.
Washington Post: “New data last week showed a fourth month of tepid job growth and propelled joblessness to its highest level since late 2021, when the economy was still recovering from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. Now, as companies wrestle with inflation, economic uncertainty and trade policy whiplash, many are shredding payrolls and shifting tasks to artificial intelligence while pulling in higher profits. And some executives are pointedly broadcasting sizable layoffs as wins, a sign they’re making workforces leaner and more efficient.”
“Hardly any corner of the economy is untouched by jobs cuts and slowdown: Employment in all goods-producing industries slumped in August, with the deepest losses coming from manufacturing and mining. The service sector was racked by steep layoffs in business and professional services and IT.”
“Turkey’s largest opposition party will launch lawsuits and mass protests that bring ‘life to a standstill’ if the government pushes ahead with a legal “coup” against its leadership,” the Financial Times reports.
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“The U.S. Supreme Court again backed President Donald Trump’s hardline approach toward immigration on Monday, letting federal agents proceed with raids in Southern California targeting people for deportation based on their race or language,” Reuters reports.
“Trump 2.0 is taking it easy on Big Tech, despite some forecasts that he would wield an antitrust anvil,” Axios reports.
“The slackness is sparking a wave of large U.S. tech mergers, with dollar volume up 52% from this time last year.”
Derek Thompson: “The first stagflation was imposed on America by outside forces. But imagine, hypothetically, that by some bizarre masochistic instinct, you wanted the US government to impose stagflation on its own country. What might you do in this totally hypothetical situation?”
“Well, maybe you would institute a legally dubious set of tariffs that immediately raised the price of all imports, including parts that manufacturers need to build things in the U.S. This would almost certainly raise the cost of durable goods, like cars and electronics. Meanwhile, if you really want to crush manufacturing, you might have the president change his mind on policy so frequently that banks and manufacturing firms couldn’t get together to invest in domestic plants.”
“Then, maybe, you would announce the most restrictive immigration policy in modern history and turn the Immigration and Customs Enforcement department into an extralegal paramilitary force that raided farm workers, construction workers, and manufacturing plants. Altogether, this might be sufficient to push down growth while forcing up prices.”
“Of course, all of this is happening.”
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CBS News, facing attacks over its coverage of the Trump administration, abruptly altered its rule for editing interviews on its long-running political show “Face the Nation,” the New York Times reports.
Air Force Academy officials canceled an upcoming lecture by University of Utah professor Paisley Rekdal after discovering her online history of disparaging President Trump, the Denver Gazette reports.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent got into a heated confrontation with Federal Housing Finance Agency chief Bill Pulte:
BESSENT: It’s either me or him. You tell me who’s getting the fuck out of here. Or, we could go outside.
PULTE: To do what? To talk?
BESSENT: No, I’m going to fucking beat your ass.
NBC News Poll: “Among Gen Z overall, 64% disapprove of Trump’s job performance versus 36% who approve. But young men are more evenly split (53% disapprove, 47% approve) than young women (74% disapprove, 26% approve). The 21-point difference in Trump’s approval rating is unchanged from April.”
“That split continues when it comes to Trump’s handling of issues. On two issues — inflation and the cost of living, and trade and tariffs — young men approve of the president by about 20 points more than young women do. The biggest Gen Z gender split on the issues is on immigration, where 45% of young men approve of the way Trump is handling deportation and immigration, compared to just 21% of young women.”
“When Republicans unveiled a new congressional map shrinking the number of Democratic districts in Texas, Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett was quick to announce he would run in the sole Austin-based district,” the Texas Tribune reports.
“Doggett, a formidable incumbent with three decades in Congress, was planting a flag with the hope that his Austin counterpart Rep. Greg Casar would stay in his current district despite its new boundaries favoring Republicans. But Doggett’s move unexpectedly set off a powerful coalition that worked publicly and privately to support the younger congressman.”
“Thousands of Brazilians took to the streets on the nation’s Independence Day on Sunday in dueling political protests, opening a tense week that is expected to conclude with the conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro,” the New York Times reports.
“Argentina’s President Javier Milei vowed no changes to his free-market economic program after a resounding defeat on Sunday to the center-left Peronist opposition in the province of Buenos Aires,” Bloomberg reports.
“The Peronist opposition came in first in the provincial election, winning about 47% of the ballots compared with 34% for Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party, with 91% of votes counted.”
“A federal appeals court on Monday rejected President Donald Trump’s bid to overturn a jury verdict ordering him to pay $83.3 million for defaming writer E. Jean Carroll,” CNBC reports.
New York Times: “The court also rejected Mr. Trump’s argument that the Supreme Court’s decision last year affording presidential immunity for official acts barred a finding of liability in Ms. Carroll’s lawsuit.”
“The war in Ukraine has become a contest between two hourglasses: one measuring how long Ukraine’s thinly stretched army can keep up the fight, and the other how long Russia’s economy can sustain the invasion without hurting the stability of Vladimir Putin’s regime,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The problem for President Trump’s push for peace is that Putin is betting Ukraine’s hourglass will run out first, allowing him to impose a victor’s terms and win a place in Russian history alongside conquering czars.”
“That is why the Russian president has for months sidestepped Trump’s proposals to freeze the fighting with a territorial compromise that the U.S. thought would be attractive for Moscow. Instead, the Kremlin is sticking to its maximalist demands, which would effectively make Ukraine its vassal and change the balance of power in Europe.”
Gallup: “Americans are more positive toward capitalism than socialism, but the 54% viewing capitalism favorably is down from 60% in 2021 and near that level in most prior years.”
“Norway goes to the polls on Monday after an unusually close-fought and polarized election dominated by the cost of living, wealth taxes, oil fund investment in Israel and relations with Donald Trump,” The Guardian reports.
“There has been a surge in support for the populist rightwing Progress party led by Sylvi Listhaug, in what has been described by some as ‘the Maga-fication’ of Norwegian politics.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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