Jonathan Martin: “Just under a month since Donald Trump announced his third consecutive White House bid, some of his loudest advocates are nowhere to be found…”

“The collective quiet also underscores how yesterday’s conventional wisdom can turn stale fast. For all the talk about how Republican politicians are scared of Trump, all but one of the party’s senators are dodging his candidacy while most Democratic lawmakers fall in line behind President Joe Biden’s presumed reelection bid.”

“That’s in part because, after the midterms, Trump has the whiff of a loser and Biden is riding high.

“However, there’s something bigger at play.”

Nate Cohn: “Here’s a figure about the 2022 midterm elections that might surprise you: Republicans won the national House popular vote by three percentage points — 51 percent to 48 percent. They still won by two points after adjusting for races in which only one major party was on the ballot.”

“Yes, that’s right: Republicans won the popular vote by a clear if modest margin, even as Democrats gained seats in the Senate and came within thousands of votes of holding the House.”

“If you’re looking to make sense of the 2022 election, the Republican lead in the national vote might just be the missing piece that helps fit a few odd puzzle pieces together.”

“The only thing harder than protecting Democrats’ 51-seat majority during the 2024 election cycle might be finding a senator willing to take on the job,” the HuffPost reports.

“The search has become a struggle for reasons both obvious and obscure. The DSCC chair could have to navigate divisive and ideological intraparty fights in both Arizona and California. The growth in online fundraising has made the connections to big donors that come with the job less valuable than in the past. More than half of the party’s senators are up for reelection or are members of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) ever-expanding leadership team.”

“But more than anything, the brutality of the map Democrats are facing would discourage any glory-seeking politician.

“Lackluster candidates nearly cost Republicans what once looked like a can’t-miss House majority. Inside the party, discussions about how to keep that from happening again in 2024 have already started,” Politico reports.

“The GOP gained control of Congress thanks to wins by some of their strongest recruits in years, a cohort that included decorated military veterans and a first-generation American. But far-right, inexperienced and Donald Trump-endorsed candidates lost other winnable seats across the country from Ohio to Michigan to Washington State.”