The Economist: “A country of political instability, low growth and subordination to the bond markets.”
Diwali to Become Public School Holiday in New York
New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) announced that Diwali will become a public school holiday in New York City starting next year, Axios reports.
Casualty in a World of Higher Borrowing Costs
“U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss’s resignation is a stark reminder of how high inflation and rising interest rates have changed the game for politicians and narrowed their room to maneuver,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“For the past decade, low inflation and ultralow interest rates gave governments around the world room to spend more and pile on debt without alarming investors. Those days are over.”
Gerard Baker: “For a decade since the global financial crisis, governments and the private sector alike have floated on an expanding ocean of free money. That era is over. Nothing announces the start of a new era as effectively as the near-death experience for the UK government this month.”
Axios: “The ignominiously fast downfall of U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss is a warning sign for the U.S. and policymakers around the world: Deficits matter again.”
The Biggest Legal Case Ever for American Democracy
Jane Mayer: “A powerful new litigant has joined one of the most momentous cases slated to be heard by the Supreme Court this term. The respondents in the case of Moore v. Harper filed a brief today that included a surprising new signatory: J. Michael Luttig, who has been known for years as perhaps the most conservative Republican judge in the country. Now, though, he has joined a coalition of veteran lawyers and nonpartisan government-watchdog groups who are fighting against a far-right Republican election-law challenge—one so radical that critics say it has the potential to end American democracy as we know it.”
“The former judge is a surprising co-counsel to Neal Katyal, the well-known Supreme Court litigator… Luttig told me that he signed on as Katyal’s co-counsel because he regards Moore v. Harper as ‘without question the most significant case in the history of our nation for American democracy.’”
Said Luttig: “Legally, it’s the whole ballgame.”
Herschel Walker’s Mental Illness Is Not ‘Cured’
New York Times: “In the ad, and on the campaign trail, Mr. Walker, a former football star, does not elaborate. But in his 2008 memoir, Breaking Free, he revealed that he had been diagnosed with dissociative identity disorder, formerly known as multiple personality disorder. He described his 12 ‘alters’ — distinct identities that helped him cope with the trauma of being bullied as a child. He wrote of rage and ‘out-of-control behavior’; he played Russian roulette with a loaded gun.”
“Now, as he tries to steady a campaign that could determine control of the Senate, Mr. Walker often speaks of these events in religious, not medical, terms. He either denies the accusations or says he does not remember what happened. Still, he casts himself as a redemption story, saying he is a Christian ‘saved by grace.’”
“But experts say Mr. Walker’s assertion that he has ‘overcome’ the disorder is simplistic at best: Like other mental illnesses, dissociative identity disorder cannot be cured in the classic sense. Psychiatrists say that while patients can learn to manage this disorder — and even live symptom-free for extended periods — the symptoms can recur, often triggered by stress.”
The Intriguing Evan McMullin Scenario
Aaron Blake: “The scenario in which McMullin could wield Mahone-esque power comes if the other results break to 50 seats for Republicans and 49 for Democrats — i.e. if Republicans lose in Utah but gain one seat elsewhere.”
“In that case, McMullin choosing Republicans would give them 51 seats and the majority, but choosing Democrats would give them 50 seats and an effective majority, by virtue of Vice President Harris’s continued tiebreakers.”
“McMullin has insisted he won’t caucus with either side, but the pressure would be immense — just as it was in 1881.”
Upset Alert
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “There are some weird things going on out there. And there probably will be races that upset our expectations. If in fact Republicans end up doing better down the stretch, that’ll involve races where Democrats appear favored flipping to the GOP. But there are also some opportunities for Democrats to potentially play spoiler, or at least come closer than expected in certain places.”
“Those following the day-to-day churn of the polls could cherry-pick their way to telling very different stories about the election.”
The Senate Is a Toss Up
Charlie Cook: “Why so many people offer such confident predictions about the Senate continues to baffle me. The possibility of a 50-50 Senate in the 118th Congress is very real, quite possibly the single most likely outcome.”
“The November election could yield 50 seats in the Republican column, 49 in the Democratic column, and another runoff in Georgia to determine control of the chamber.
“To the extent that Democrats have an edge in retaining the Senate, it just might be that the status quo works fine for them, with Vice President Kamala Harris in the presiding chair to break ties. Further, candidate quality matters so much more in the Senate than the House, the far more sensitive barometer of the national political climate.”
Nate Silver: Why I’m telling my friends the Senate is a Toss Up.
Judge Orders Capitol Rioter Immediately Jailed
“A federal judge ordered a Jan. 6 rioter to be jailed Thursday after he admitted to assaulting officers with chemical spray and breaking out a window at the Capitol, with the judge calling the defendant’s conduct ‘outrageous,’” NBC News reports.
“The judge declined to make an exception to a law that requires those who plead guilty to violent felonies to be detained between their plea and their sentencing.”
Said Judge Reggie Walton: “You make your bed, you gotta lie in it.”
Trump Claims He Owns 9 Documents from Mar-a-Lago
“Former President Donald Trump is claiming that nine documents seized by the FBI. from his Florida residence are his personal property — but the Justice Department says they are official records that should be deposited with the National Archives,” the New York Times reports.
“The materials from the initial tranche that Mr. Trump maintains belong to him include six packages submitted to him when he was president supporting requests that he grant clemency to pardon-seekers; two documents related to his administration’s immigration policies; and an email addressed to him from a person at a military academy, it said.”
Even Newsmax Banned Lara Logan
The right-wing channel Newsmax has banned Lara Logan from its air after she went on a QAnon-style rant during an appearance on the network this week, CNN reports.
In a bizarre interview, Logan told host Eric Bolling that “the open border is Satan’s way of taking control of the world,” and later added that the world’s elites “want us eating insects [and] cockroaches” while they “dine on the blood of children.”
Reviewing Andrew Cuomo’s New Podcast
New York Times: “The particular media format he has chosen, one that prizes inquiry and favors those with a gift for talking to people rather than at them, is not his natural métier. You don’t get the sense that he compensated by studying up, listening to countless hours of Preet Bharara or Radiolab while he was restoring an old motorcycle. Mr. Cuomo’s affect is flat and heavy, coming to us with all the spontaneity of someone delivering a keynote at a hematology conference.”
Slavery Is on the Ballot in 5 States
Associated Press: “More than 150 years after slaves were freed in the U.S., voters in five states will soon decide whether to close loopholes that led to the proliferation of a different form of slavery — forced labor by people convicted of certain crimes.”
U.S. Weighs Reviews for Elon Musk’s Deals
“Biden administration officials are discussing whether the US should subject some of Elon Musk’s ventures to national security reviews, including the deal for Twitter Inc. and SpaceX’s Starlink satellite network,” Bloomberg reports.
“US officials have grown uncomfortable over Musk’s recent threat to stop supplying the Starlink satellite service to Ukraine… and what they see as his increasingly Russia-friendly stance following a series of tweets that outlined peace proposals favorable to President Vladimir Putin. They are also concerned by his plans to buy Twitter with a group of foreign investors.”
Where Democrats Can Find Some Good News
Playbook: “We’ve been writing all week about the palpable shift toward Republicans in recent polling. But if Democrats are looking for some good news, our David Siders reports this morning that they can find it way up north. Alaska’s independents seem poised to swing dramatically toward the Democrats, and that could be an ominous sign for Republicans throughout the nation — if not in 2022, then beyond.”
Washington Weighs Options as Recession Fears Rise
Washington Post: “Amid intensifying forecasts of a U.S. recession, Washington policymakers are beginning to confront their limited options for easing the effects of a slowdown accompanied by high inflation – a confounding set of economic conditions that would present starkly different challenges from recent downturns.”
“Officials at the White House and the Federal Reserve say that they continue to believe a recession can be avoided and that they remain focused on fighting inflation, which is rising at rates not seen in four decades. But with Wall Street trembling, and many private forecasters warning that recession is likely, preliminary talks about policy options are underway around town.”
“On Capitol Hill, congressional officials have begun discussing the challenge of intervening to alleviate the pain of a recession in ways that do not exacerbate inflation. At the White House, aides have informally begun weighing hypothetical options, such as unemployment benefits and food stamp assistance. And at the Federal Reserve, staffers have discussed with outside analysts how monetary policy could simultaneously respond to an economic contraction and high prices — a dual challenge it has not faced in decades.”
Why Republicans Are Surging
David Brooks: “The Trumpified GOP deserves to be a marginalized and disgraced force in American life. But I’ve been watching the campaign speeches by people like Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor in Arizona. G.O.P. candidates are telling a very clear class/culture/status war narrative in which common-sense Americans are being assaulted by elite progressives who let the homeless take over the streets, teach sex ed to 5-year-olds, manufacture fake news, run woke corporations, open the border and refuse to do anything about fentanyl deaths and the sorts of things that affect regular people.”
Kim Strassel: “What is real to voters is soaring inflation and energy prices, unsettling levels of crime and an unchecked border. Democrats don’t have any answer for those problems.”
Student-Loan Forgiveness Program Clears Hurdle
“A federal judge in Missouri denied a request by a group of Republican state leaders to block the Biden administration’s student-loan forgiveness program, a boost for the White House as it plans to begin canceling debt in the coming days,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
