Political Wire

China’s Truce with Trump Buys It Valuable Time

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“For China and its top leader, Xi Jinping, the biggest prize from a summit in Washington, notably free from confrontation, may be simple: time,” the New York Times reports.

“Time to cope with a housing market crash that has wiped away the savings of tens of millions of Chinese families. Time to deal with local governments running short of money as land-use revenue collapses. Time to make China even less vulnerable to economic pressure from the United States and other industrialized countries.”

“And perhaps most consequentially, time to prepare for the once-in-five-years Communist Party national congress next autumn, which will choose a new slate of top leaders to work under Mr. Xi.”

Trump Should Stop Hosting Summits

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Tom Nichols: “Summits are a problem in this administration for two reasons. The most important is that Trump’s unpredictability and obvious lack of preparation make them dangerous. State visits require a lot of political groundwork, and leaders rarely go into top-level meetings without a set of issues they’ve already agreed to discuss. This agenda-setting gets done long before a president actually sits down with another head of state so that stray asides (or rising tempers) do not derail whatever business needs to be discussed.”

“The grim outcomes of previous summits with Trump, however, suggest that they are seat-of-the-pants affairs, with little preparation, or perhaps with preparation that was ignored by the president.”

Mary Peltola Runs an ‘Alaska First’ Campaign

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“Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola has become a central part of her party’s plan to flip the Senate in November, but you won’t hear her talk much about that when she’s on the campaign trail,” Bloomberg reports.

“Peltola hardly mentions that she’s a Democrat in a state that President Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024. Instead, she emphasizes her native Alaskan roots, her background in commercial fishing, her support for oil and gas projects and her conviction that guns have a place in the most remote corner of the U.S..”

Bonus Quote of the Day

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“I was trying to warn people that if they actually wanted to hold the seat, that I would be a safer bet.”

— Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), quoted by Punchbowl News, on polls showing Ken Paxton trailing in the U.S. Senate race in Texas.

Trade War with Canada Adds Challenge in Senate Races

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“President Trump’s trade war with Canada could intensify the headwinds Republicans are navigating ahead of the November midterms, with its effects poised to reverberate in northern battleground states with crucial Senate races,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“The escalating beef with Canada — Trump attacked the country anew on social media Wednesday — stands to heighten voters’ economic worries and add to the GOP’s political challenge in dead-heat races, analysts said.”

Inside the Record Summer ICE Surge

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“The most effective escalation of President Trump’s mass deportation campaign happened quietly,” the New York Times reports.

“Unlike earlier high-profile raids that drew thousands of protesters into the streets of Chicago, Los Angeles and Minneapolis, the surge in arrests in June, July and August was captured mostly by grainy security camera footage, through cracked blinds and from behind closed doors.”

“Arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement this summer soared to record highs since the start of this Trump administration — with 43,000 in June, more than 49,000 in July and nearly 51,000 in August — as officials cut or narrowed the pathways to legal residency in the United States and expanded the pool of people eligible for deportation.”

Texas PAC Pours Even More Cash Into the Lone Star State

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Punchbowl News: “The Senate Republican leadership-backed super PAC boosting Ken Paxton in Texas could spend as much as $200 million between now and Nov. 3, according to sources familiar with their efforts.”

“Texas PAC, which is run and partially funded by Senate Leadership Fund, has already booked $117 million in ads in the Lone Star State to try to help Paxton compete with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. Much will depend on how much SLF can raise for Texas PAC.”

“Paxton hasn’t led Talarico in a single public poll since mid-August. And here’s the scary part for Republicans: private GOP polling mirrors the public surveys.”

The Hot U.S. Economy Can’t Be Cooled

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“The U.S. economy keeps powering through inflation, tariffs and higher borrowing costs, defying a run-up in Treasury yields and a Fed rate increase. That has the bond market spooked,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The usual economic brakes aren’t slowing growth, hiring or an AI investment boom that looks to be unstoppable. To some, AI’s potential returns seem so bright that even steep interest rates won’t slow down tech companies’ investments.”

Trump Eyes an October Campaign Rally — In Alabama

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“President Donald Trump is tentatively set to visit Alabama for a political rally next week, a curious move in a deep-red state as his party fights for control of Congress in several battlegrounds,” Politico reports.

“The event is penciled in for Oct. 2 in Mobile, but the plans have not yet been finalized and are subject to change.”

“An October rally in Alabama would be a somewhat confounding decision for the president. The GOP has found itself having to play defense in their own territory recently, with Democratic candidates are seriously competing for Senate seats in normally red states like Alaska and Texas. But Alabama has not been considered a state where Democrats have any real shot at winning any statewide office.”

There Is No ‘Blue Wave,’ But There Is a ‘Red Undertow’

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Charlie Cook: “Unless you’re politically tone-deaf, you’re by now aware that there are ugly storm clouds ahead for Republicans in this midterm election, now just 43 days away. But how big the storm is and where the destruction will take place is still unknowable. While many have long predicted that Democrats will enjoy a ‘blue wave’ election, I think of it more as a ‘red undertow,’ which will pull many Republicans under and significantly trim the margins for many others.”

“A blue wave implies an endorsement or affirmation of Democrats and their policies. But Democrats’ brand is still in tatters from 2021-2025, particularly 2021 and 2022, when they not only had President Biden in the White House but also majorities in the Senate and House. Fortunately for Democrats, this election will in most cases not be about them.”

Quote of the Day

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“It’s going to take a Herculean effort to hold the seat. The Monday morning quarterbacking is going to be biblical. The hand-wringing and the blaming. Paxton will blame Cornyn. Trump will blame Paxton. Trump should blame himself.”

— A veteran Texas GOP operative, quoted by Politico, on the Texas Senate race.

Fighting Engulfs Yemen

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“After months largely on the sidelines in the U.S.-led war against Iran, the Houthi rebels mounted a stunning offensive earlier this month along Yemen’s Red Sea coast that sent global oil markets reeling,” the Washington Post reports.

Why Does Markwayne Mullin Live with Jason Smith?

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“Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin has reportedly shared a Washington, D.C. home with Rep. Jason Smith for three years, renewing speculation about the two men,” the Advocate reports.

“Mullin, a former professional fighter, met Smith, the Missouri Republican who chairs the House Ways and Means Committee, while leading bipartisan congressional workouts, The New York Times reported in 2014. The workouts also included former Rep. Aaron Schock, an Illinois Republican who came out as gay after leaving Congress.”

Why the Gulf Wants Trump to Hold the Line On Iran

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“Efforts to rekindle talks to end the war between the U.S. and Iran are running into resistance from major Persian Gulf oil producers that have swung against any accommodation of Tehran,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Gulf countries generally agree that Trump shouldn’t escalate militarily against Iran. But oil kingpin Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are lobbying the Trump administration to keep up the economic pressure on Iran and not agree to concessions that would ease sanctions or the U.S. Navy blockade.”

Trump Continues Voter Data Push Despite Setbacks

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“President Donald Trump is pressing forward with an unprecedented push for his administration to obtain sensitive voter data ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, despite repeated losses in court, in a hunt for noncitizens illegally registered to vote, though there has been no evidence of widespread fraud of this kind,” Reuters reports.

It’s Too Late for Republicans to Distance Themselves

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Jonathan Tamari: “After nearly two years of clinging to the president, it’s a tough sell to tell people less than six weeks before Election Day that, hey, actually, we don’t support this war that’s been going on for seven months.”

“It’s even harder when some turn down a chance to put their words into action, as several did Thursday by again voting against a resolution to end the conflict, despite calling for it to wrap up or complaining that gas prices are too high.”

“The Iran vote might help them again avoid blowback from Trump, but it keeps at-risk senators on record supporting one of his most unpopular decisions.”

A Snapshot of Three Governor’s Races

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A new Siena Research Institute poll in Maine finds Hannah Pingree (D) leading Bobby Charles (R) in the governor’s race, 47% to 34%, with Rick Bennett (I) at 8%.

Maine Governor’s Race
Hannah Pingree (D) 47%
 
Bobby Charles (R) 34%
 
Siena Research Institute poll · likely voters
Michigan Governor’s Race
Jocelyn Benson (D) 48%
 
John James (R) 43%
 
Siena Research Institute poll · likely voters
New Hampshire Governor’s Race
Kelly Ayotte (R) 52%
 
Cinde Warmington (D) 41%
 
Siena Research Institute poll · likely voters
Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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