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Notes on the State of the Senate

May 8, 2025 at 7:03 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Republicans missed out on a top recruiting target earlier this week, as Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) decided not to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA).”

“Georgia remains a Toss-up in our ratings even as Ossoff’s reelection path got clearer.”

“Another place where Democrats are playing defense, Michigan, remains a Toss-up, while a couple of other open Democratic seats in Democratic-leaning states, Minnesota and New Hampshire, are developing better for Democrats than Republicans.”

Key takeaway: “While there have already been many key developments in the race for the Senate in 2026, history shows that key candidate decisions may still be months away in some places.”

Joe and Jill Biden to Appear on ‘The View’

May 8, 2025 at 6:55 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Former President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden will appear on ‘The View’ on Thursday for their first joint interview since leaving the White House, ABC News reports.

Biden Taps Operative to Help Defend His Reputation

May 8, 2025 at 6:16 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Joe Biden is in reputation management mode, hiring a veteran campaign and communications strategist to help burnish his legacy at a time when many in his party want him to exit the stage,” Politico reports.

“In a sign of Biden’s intent to remain engaged publicly, his inner circle tapped Chris Meagher, a former Biden deputy press secretary and Defense Department spokesperson, to help him transition past the first 100 days of the Trump administration.”


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Trump’s Threats Push Greenlanders Closer to Denmark

May 8, 2025 at 6:10 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “President Trump has frequently said that he covets Greenland, a self-ruled part of the Danish kingdom, for its strategic position in the warming Arctic and largely untapped natural resources. In this pursuit, the White House had hoped to capitalize on the resentment that many Greenlanders feel about Denmark’s colonial legacy.”

“But for now, at least, this pressure from Washington has had an opposite effect on the 56,600 Greenlanders, most of whom are indigenous Inuit people who jealously guard their culture. In recent weeks, Greenland and Denmark have moved closer together as officials in Nuuk and Copenhagen sought to reinvigorate their relationship and to look with fresh eyes at outstanding problems.”

SALT Republicans Have More Leverage Than You Think

May 8, 2025 at 6:04 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “It’s time to talk about SALT and why we think that New York, New Jersey and California Republicans have exponentially more leverage than some in the House Republican Conference are giving them credit for.”

“Let’s put this plainly: A handful of SALT members are willing to tank the reconciliation package and President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda if they don’t get a SALT deal they like.”

Said Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY): “It is a hill I am willing to stake my entire congressional career on.”

Said Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY): “I’ve been very clear with leadership and the administration from the very beginning — if there is not a fix for SALT, there is no bill. If nothing passes, SALT comes back unlimited, so it is on leadership to offer a number and negotiate from there. We are not negotiating against ourselves.”

How a Lobbyist Burned His Influence with Trump

May 8, 2025 at 6:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“On a Sunday morning in early March, President Donald Trump greenlit a Truth Social post promoting a ‘Crypto Strategic Reserve.’ Hours later, he felt like he’d been played,” Politico reports.

“That weekend at Mar-A-Lago, an employee of the lobby shop run by Brian Ballard who was attending a donor event at the resort, had personally buttonholed the president and encouraged him multiple times to tout his desire to promote the industry. She even gave him a copy of a message she thought he should write.”

“It was only after he posted that missive that Trump realized a company behind one of the tokens named in the post, Ripple Labs, was a Ballard client. He was furious and felt like he’d been used, according to two people familiar with the incident who were granted anonymity to speak candidly.”

Said Trump to his aides: “He is not welcome in anything anymore.”

Toyota Says Tariffs Will Erase Profits in Two Months

May 8, 2025 at 6:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “A year ago, the world’s biggest automaker was on a tear. American consumers were snapping up Toyota Motor’s hybrids, and a weak yen inflated the value of the company’s earnings. That May, Toyota reported the highest annual profit ever recorded by a Japanese firm.”

“On Thursday, Toyota presented a significantly more somber outlook, projecting that its operating profit would decline by about one-fifth for the fiscal year ending in March. It cited headwinds from a stronger yen and predicted a $1.3 billion hit from President Trump’s tariffs in April and May alone.”

Trump Eyes Release of Hur Interview Blocked by Biden

May 7, 2025 at 10:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Trump administration is making plans to release the audio of former President Joe Biden’s interview with Robert Hur, the special counsel who investigated Biden’s handling of classified documents and raised questions about his mental acuity,” Politico reports.

“Biden’s camp is girding for the possible release.”

Trump Teases Major Trade Deal

May 7, 2025 at 10:02 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump on Wednesday night teased a trade deal announcement with a “big and highly respected country,” The Hill reports.

The New York Times says the country is the United Kingdom.

“Details of the agreement were not immediately clear. Both nations have discussed lowering British tariffs on U.S. cars and farm goods, as well as removing British taxes on U.S. technology companies. It also was not clear whether the agreement had actually been finalized, or if the countries would announce a framework for an agreement that they would continue negotiating in the coming months.”

Where Is Melania?

May 7, 2025 at 10:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “As the weeks pass by at the White House, the corner of the residence long used by first ladies remains dark, because this first lady does not really live in Washington.”

“Melania Trump vanishes from view for weeks at a time, holing up in Trump Tower in Manhattan or in Florida, where she can lie low at Mar-a-Lago. Administration officials say she is at the White House more often than the public knows, but when exactly, and for how long, these officials will not (or perhaps cannot) say for certain.”

“It’s like having Greta Garbo as first lady.”

Trump Touts ‘Great Progress’ as Republicans Quarrel

May 7, 2025 at 6:54 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Donald Trump is declaring that Republicans are “making great progress” as the GOP conference wrangles with key policy holdups that could delay the package central to his agenda, Politico reports.

Republicans Search for Backup Plan in Georgia

May 7, 2025 at 6:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s decision to pass on a Senate bid has top Republican officials scrambling to find a backup plan and avoid a divisive primary — or, at the very least, one divisive candidate,” NBC News reports.

“There are growing concerns in Georgia GOP circles that if Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene becomes the Republican nominee to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, she could hurt the party’s chances to flip the seat, given her divisive reputation and rhetoric.”

Trump Taps ‘MAHA’ Influencer for Surgeon General

May 7, 2025 at 5:37 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump said he would nominate Dr. Casey Means, a California doctor and wellness influencer, to be the next surgeon general,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Means has become more prominent with the rise of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s ‘Make America Healthy Again’ movement. She and her brother, Kennedy adviser Calley Means, wrote a book, Good Energy, that became popular with Trump campaign staffers and later with Kennedy.”

Trump to Pitch Sweeping Medicare Drug Price Plan

May 7, 2025 at 5:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump plans to revive an effort to dramatically slash drug costs by tying the amount the government pays for some medicines to lower prices abroad,” Politico reports.

“Trump early next week is expected to sign an executive order directing aides to pursue the initiative, called ‘most favored nation,’ for a selection of drugs within the Medicare program. The idea would use the administration’s authorities to force prices down.”

This is apparently the big announcement Trump teased yesterday.

Trump Pulling Surgeon General Nominee

May 7, 2025 at 4:35 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The White House is expected to pull its nomination of Dr. Janette Nesheiwat as U.S. surgeon general just a day before she was expected to appear before the Senate for her confirmation hearing,” ABC News reports.

“The news comes as right-wing activist Laura Loomer called on the president to pick a new nominee after it came to light that Nesheiwat received her medical degree from American University of the Caribbean instead of the University of Arkansas. Loomer also criticized Nesheiwat for being pro-vaccine.”

Trump Boxes In Mike Lawler

May 7, 2025 at 4:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) has openly floated a run for New York governor in 2026, but Donald Trump may have just shut that door.

Despite Lawler’s insistence that he won’t be swayed by party politics, Republican leaders are urging him to seek re-election to the House instead.

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Trump Stokes a Vance-Rubio Competition

May 7, 2025 at 4:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump gave JD Vance and Marco Rubio huge portfolios and has openly named both as his potential successors — putting two unlikely friends on a collision course for the GOP nomination in 2028,” Semafor reports.

“Vance and Rubio aren’t exactly rivals; in fact, White House officials and people close to the vice president note he’s developed a close relationship with the secretary of state during their time together in the Senate and now in the Trump administration. Intentionally or not, though, the president is stoking future competition between the duo, and those around him are taking notice.”

Trump Digs In on High China Tariffs

May 7, 2025 at 3:31 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump said Wednesday he would not consider lowering the United States’ 145% tariffs on China in order to spur trade-war negotiations with Beijing,” CNBC reports.

“Trump flatly answered ‘no’ when asked at the White House if he was open to pulling back on the steep import duties to get China to the negotiating table.”

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Word of the Day

Balanced Ticket: A balanced ticket is a paring of political party candidates designed to appeal to a broad swathe of the electorate.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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