Notes on the State of the Senate

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Republicans missed out on a top recruiting target earlier this week, as Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) decided not to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA).”

“Georgia remains a Toss-up in our ratings even as Ossoff’s reelection path got clearer.”

“Another place where Democrats are playing defense, Michigan, remains a Toss-up, while a couple of other open Democratic seats in Democratic-leaning states, Minnesota and New Hampshire, are developing better for Democrats than Republicans.”

Key takeaway: “While there have already been many key developments in the race for the Senate in 2026, history shows that key candidate decisions may still be months away in some places.”