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How the GOP Came to Embrace ‘Replacement Theory’

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Aaron Blake: “The story of the Republican Party in the Trump era is, by and large, one of a boiled frog.”

“Trump constantly pushed the envelope in ways that made his allies uncomfortable. They sometimes spoke out, especially early on, only to have the base stand by the president and rebuke them. That meant that when Trump pushed even further, his duly chastened allies increasingly responded accordingly: with silence. It’s how we got from a guy carping about supposed voter fraud in an election he won, in 2016, to a guy spurring a harebrained effort to overturn the 2020 election, which he lost.”

“The boiled frog (the proverbial tale of a frog that is boiled too slowly to realize what’s happening to it) is now returning, in the form of replacement theory. The GOP seems either unconscious of what’s happening — or doesn’t care.”


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Liz Cheney Challenger Once Condemned Trump

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Harriet Hageman (R), who was endorsed by Donald Trump in her challenge to Rep. Liz Cheney (R), called Trump “the weakest candidate” in the 2016 Republican primary and referred to him as “somebody who is racist and xenophobic,” the New York Times reports.

“Ms. Hageman’s yearslong journey from Never-Trumpism to declaring him the best president of her lifetime is one of the most striking illustrations yet of the political elasticity demonstrated both by ambitious Republicans in the Trump era and by the former president himself, who has relentlessly asserted his dominance over leaders of his party.”

Three House Democrats Reiterate Threat on Infrastructure

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Reps. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), Ilhan Omar (D-MN) and Katie Porter (D-CA) reiterate in a CNN op-ed that they will not vote for the bipartisan infrastructure bill until after the budget reconciliation companion bill is passed.

Punchbowl News: “This op-ed has three signatories. Speaker Nancy Pelosi has a three-seat margin in the House. Of course, some Republicans will vote for infrastructure, so it still could pass if these Democrats vote no. But we’ll have to see how many Democrats stand with these progressive leaders.”

Biden Says Spending Bills May Not Pass This Week

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President Biden on Monday acknowledged Congress may not get his economic agenda and a government funding deal done by the end of the week, but expressed optimism both would eventually pass, The Hill reports.

Said Biden: “It may not be by the end of the week. I hope it’s by the end of the week. But as long as we’re still alive, we’ve got three things to do: The debt ceiling, continuing resolution, and the two pieces of legislation. If we do that, the country is going to be in great shape.”

GOP Would Share Blame for Shutdown, Debt Default

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Even though Democrats control Congress and the White House, a new Politico/Morning Consult poll finds voters will spread the blame around if the U.S. were to default on the national debt or if there were a government shutdown.

A plurality says they will blame both parties equally, and that’s before this week’s heightened attention to these issues when Republicans plan on filibustering a bill to keep the government open and raise the debt limit.

McAuliffe Maintains Lead for Virginia Governor

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A new Monmouth poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) leading Glenn Youngkin (R) in the governor’s race, 48% to 41% among registered voters.

A range of potential electorate scenarios shows McAuliffe ahead by anywhere from 3 points (48% to 45%) to 7 points (50% to 43%) depending on the likely voter model. Youngkin does better when more low-propensity voters are included in the mix.

Specifically, McAuliffe has a lead among voters who have cast ballots in every general election since 2016 (51% to 44%) and those who participated in 4 of the last 5 general elections (49% to 43%). Among those who voted in only 2 or 3 elections and are considered less reliable voters, the race is much closer (44% for McAuliffe and 42% for Youngkin).

Texas GOP Protects Incumbents with New Map

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“Republicans spent tens of millions of dollars in 2020 to keep Democrats from painting more of Texas blue. Now, the GOP is trying to fireproof its districts with a new map that contains the suburban damage they’ve suffered,” Politico reports.

“While the precise boundaries are still being finalized, the new map is likely to shore up all of the state’s GOP incumbents by packing Democrats together in three new deep-blue seats in the biggest metro areas: Austin, Houston and Dallas.”

Abby Livingston: “My very very first takeaway from the Texas redistricting map: This is a map drawn for incumbent protection more than anything else.”

Judge to Grant Unconditional Release of John Hinckley

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“A U.S. judge will grant the unconditional release of John W. Hinckley Jr. effective in June 2022, 41 years after he shot President Ronald Reagan and three others outside a D.C. hotel,” the Washington Post reports.

“Outrage over Hinckley’s acquittal in the March 30, 1981 shooting reshaped the insanity defense in courts across the country. The revelation that he had pulled the trigger to impress movie star Jodie Foster added obsession and celebrity to the case. And extraordinary television footage of the attack on the 40th U.S. president brought the event to millions of American homes.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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