A new PIX11/Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll finds Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) surging ahead to a 9% lead in the Democratic primary that pits him against Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) and Attorney Suraj Patel (D).
Democrats Are Running as Opposition Party
John Pitney: “Democrats have many problems. The economy is rocky and Biden is deeply unpopular. A larger than normal share of Democratic House incumbents are not running for reelection, which is always a leading indicator of losses. Their starting margins are thin.”
“And yet, Democrats have been handed an opportunity to portray themselves as the opposition party. For the last five election cycles, that has been a good place to be.”
The GOP Summer Swoon
Matthew Continetti: “Today caps off the worst week yet for Republicans in the 2022 campaign cycle. Their troubles began with Senate passage of the Chips and Science Act on Wednesday, July 27, and culminated in the Kansas pro-life rout on Tuesday, August 2.”
“Before last week, the party was riding a red wave to victory in November’s elections. Now, one month before the campaign begins in earnest on Labor Day, aimless Republicans must fend off a Democratic Party that is playing offense.”
The Unpresidential Vulgarity of ‘Let’s Go Brandon’
Bill Lueders: “Trump, who typically addresses me as ‘Friend,’ has also offered me a chance to obtain a ‘Let’s Go Brandon’ flag for the same low price of $45, or about ten times what either item likely costs to produce. Alas, his merch website does not currently seem to stock ‘Let’s Go Brandon’ T-shirts, previously available.”
“The pitches for the hat—which I am increasingly skeptical is being offered just to me—all use the same language: ‘Biden is an absolute DISASTER and is ruining our country. Make sure everyone knows where you stand by proudly wearing this hat.'”
Russia Insists Prisoner Swap Talks Be Done Privately
“The Kremlin said Friday that it’s open to talking about a possible prisoner exchange involving American basketball star Brittney Griner but strongly warned Washington against publicizing the issue,” the AP reports.
Why John Fetterman is So Good at Messaging
Dan Pfeiffer: “Modern politics is a battle for attention. Therefore, campaigns need to communicate 24-7 and aim to dominate the political conversation.”
“The Fetterman Campaign is always on offense. They are constantly putting out content that amplifies their message and puts Dr. Oz on the defensive. They never let up. Every day brings more videos, ads, and social media posts hammering Oz and amplifying the positive Fetterman message. When political news breaks, the campaign treats it as an opportunity to communicate on his terms.”
Many Democrats Unwilling to Back Biden in 2024
“A startling number of lawmakers in President Biden’s own party have been unwilling in recent days to say he should seek re-election in 2024, amid gnawing fears he’ll be too old or unpopular to win,” Axios reports.
“Backing your own party’s first-term president is usually so automatic that no one would bother to ask. But behind the scenes, there’s a very real concern that going all in on Biden could be a mistake.”
Trump PAC Paid Melania Trump’s Fashion Designer
“The fund affiliated with former President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election paid $60,000 to a fashion designer known for styling Melania Trump’s wardrobe when the couple was in the White House,” USA Today reports.
Bipartisan Foreign Policy Is a Biden Surprise
Jonathan Bernstein: “It’s time to give President Joe Biden credit for achieving something no one predicted: bipartisanship in foreign policy.”
“The Senate on Wednesday delivered a victory for Biden’s foreign policy agenda, voting almost unanimously to admit Finland and Sweden into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Previously, Biden was able to get the Ukraine aid he has asked for. That Senate vote in May also was truly bipartisan, with all the Democrats joined by 39 of the 50 Republicans; that was after House Republicans voted nearly 3-to-1 in favor of the bill.”
Trump Returns to Wisconsin
“There is something slightly odd but perfectly logical about former President Donald Trump’s trip to Waukesha on Friday in his effort to influence the outcome of Wisconsin’s GOP primary for governor,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
“The odd part is that Milwaukee’s Republican suburbs have been a recurring political disappointment for Trump at election time. They symbolize lost ground for his party in the Trump Era.”
“The logical part is that Waukesha is still where the votes are for Republicans.”
A Fetus Is Tax Deductible in Georgia
New York Times: “The state’s Department of Revenue announced this week that ‘any unborn child with a detectable human heartbeat’ can be claimed as dependent, providing a $3,000 tax exemption for each pregnancy within a household, months before the child is born. Georgia’s law bans most abortions after six weeks, which is usually around when doctors can begin to detect fetal cardiac activity.”
“The announcement marks a new frontier of anti-abortion policymaking in a post-Roe America, where conservative lawmakers have moved beyond banning abortion, and are now trying to expand the legal rights and protections afforded to a fetus under ‘fetal personhood’ laws. Georgia, Alabama and Arizona have passed abortion bans that include language broadly defining a fetus as a person.”
5 Winners This Week Believe 2020 Election Was Stolen
“At least five Republican primary winners in battleground states won by Joe Biden embraced Donald Trump’s baseless claim that the 2020 election was stolen,” CBS News reports.
“Several took action to try to overturn the 2020 election results when Trump lost their states, and if elected in November, they could have the power to block or delay the certification of election results in their states in the 2024 presidential election.”
Liz Cheney Urges Indictment of Trump
Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) urged the Justice Department to prosecute former President Trump if it finds evidence that Trump committed crimes in connection with the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, CNBC reports,
Said Cheney: “If the facts and the evidence are there, and they decide not to prosecute — how do we then call ourselves a nation of laws?”
John Fetterman Returns to the Campaign Trail
Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, the Democratic Senate nominee, will hold his first public rally next week since suffering a near-deadly stroke four days before the May 17 primary election, the Washington Post reports.
The Coming War Over Taiwan
Hal Brands and Michael Beckley write in the Wall Street Journal:
“The U.S. is running out of time to prevent a cataclysmic war in the Western Pacific. While the world has been focused on Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine, Xi Jinping appears to be preparing for an even more consequential onslaught against Taiwan. Mr. Xi’s China is fueled by a dangerous mix of strength and weakness: Faced with profound economic, demographic and strategic problems, it will be tempted to use its burgeoning military power to transform the existing order while it still has the opportunity.”
“This peaking-power syndrome—the tendency for rising states to become more aggressive as they become more fearful of impending decline—has caused some of the bloodiest wars in history. Unless the U.S. and its allies act quickly, it could trigger a conflict that would make the war in Ukraine look minor by comparison.”
Facebook Quieter on Election Misinformation Efforts
“Facebook owner Meta is quietly curtailing some of the safeguards designed to thwart voting misinformation or foreign interference in U.S. elections as the November midterm vote approaches,” the AP reports.
“It’s a sharp departure from the social media giant’s multibillion-dollar efforts to enhance the accuracy of posts about U.S. elections and regain trust from lawmakers and the public after their outrage over learning the company had exploited people’s data and allowed falsehoods to overrun its site during the 2016 campaign.”
“The pivot is raising alarm about Meta’s priorities and about how some might exploit the world’s most popular social media platforms to spread misleading claims, launch fake accounts and rile up partisan extremists.”
Kellyanne’s Comeback
Tara Palmeri: “Last month I reported that veteran G.O.P. strategist (and former DeSantis hand) Susie Wiles was the lead contender to run Trump’s 2024 campaign. Wiles, who currently oversees his political operation, was a natural contender. She’s a steady presence whom Trump trusts implicitly after she orchestrated his two electoral victories in Florida. In fact, Wiles probably has one of the most air-tight reputations in Trumpworld, a place without an H.R. department.”
“Lately, however, another name has emerged as a possible outside candidate to run Trump’s campaign—Kellyanne Conway. The former White House aide, whose marriage and domestic life became crossover TMZ fodder, was in the Trumpworld doghouse a few months ago on account of a passage in her memoir, Here’s the Deal, in which she acknowledged that Trump did not win the 2020 election. Conway also faced some heat when her preferred candidate for the Nebraska gubernatorial race, Charles Herbster, lost his primary even after receiving Trump’s endorsement. Not good for his scorecard.”
“Nevertheless, multiple sources in Trump’s inner circle tell me that Conway is back in his good graces and, as she made clear in her book, she was not happy to be sidelined from the 2020 race by former campaign manager Brad Parscale.”
Is a Recession Necessary to Tame Inflation?
Politico: “Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week the central bank isn’t trying to cause a recession by raising interest rates and doesn’t think it needs to as the Fed aggressively moves to get decades-high inflation under control.”
“Some economists — including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers — say Powell is being much too optimistic about the Fed’s ability to tame prices without pushing unemployment much higher. The implication: The Fed chief, who has sought to elevate the central bank’s focus on boosting the labor market, may be forced to accept millions of job losses and a significant recession to curb inflation.”
Said Summers: “Unless we have a set of very surprising and positive developments, we’re not likely to see the inflation rate come all the way down to the Fed’s target without there being some level of meaningful economic distress.”
