Political Wire

Democrats Increase Their Lead in the Generic Ballot

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A new Monmouth poll finds Democrats have made slight gains in the public’s preference for party control of Congress since the spring.

Currently, 38% of Americans say they want the Democrats in charge and another 12% have no initial preference but lean toward Democratic control. Republican control is preferred by 34% with another 9% leaning toward the GOP.

The combined 50% who choose the Democrats is up from 47% in June and 44% in May. Republicans’ 43% support level is down from 47% in June and 48% in May.

Trump’s Influence Over Republican Politics Is Clear

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Jonathan Bernstein: “The former president’s power over the party’s voters is nothing extraordinary, but his sway over its candidates is strong. Tuesday’s wins and losses filled in some more details.”

“In general, some of Trump’s endorsed candidates in contested races win, especially when the conditions are good for any high-profile endorsement to matter — multicandidate primaries with little to differentiate the candidates.”

“Yet candidates continue to beg for his endorsement, and in practical terms, that means that a lot of Republican candidates are repeating Trump’s false claims about the 2020 election. Some just refuse to admit that President Joe Biden was legitimately elected, while others are basically campaigning against free and fair elections.”

Democrats Make a Very Risky Gamble In Michigan

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Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI) narrowly lost his seat last night when he was beaten by the Trump-backed John Gibbs (R) in a Republican primary.

Meijer’s primary loss is mostly due to his vote to impeach Donald Trump for the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol.

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Democrats Not In Disarray

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Jonathan Bernstein: “Democrats haven’t been able to clear the field everywhere, but they have done so in many high-profile races, and they’re generally making pragmatic choices in highly contested seats. For governor in Arizona, for instance, they nominated current Secretary of State Katie Hobbs by a more than 3-to-1 margin.”

“There’s no guarantee any Democrat will win in Arizona this year, even if Republicans put up a weak candidate. But Democrats are successfully avoiding intense nomination fights and emerging united, usually behind well-regarded candidates. That’s not always been the case, and it remains to be seen whether it makes any difference. But it is certainly a major theme of this cycle for the party.”

The Midterm Elections Won’t Be Just About Abortion

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No matter how you look at it, the abortion rights vote in Kansas last night was a political earthquake ahead of the midterm elections.

The ballot measure not only encouraged more Democrats to turn out to vote, but it proved unpopular to many Republicans as well — even in areas that overwhelmingly voted for Donald Trump.

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Ron Johnson Wants Social Security to Be Discretionary

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“Saying programs like Social Security and Medicare suffer from improper oversight, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) called for turning every government program into discretionary spending programs, meaning Congress would have to allocate funding for the programs each year,” the Wisconsin State Journal reports.

“Such an effort could lead to yearly battles over the programs — fights that some Republicans say are necessary to cut down on government spending, while many Democrats consider the programs to be some of the nation’s most beneficial.”

Abortion Is Top Factor Urging Americans to Protest

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Gallup: “Nearly four in 10 Americans, 39%, say they have felt the urge to organize or join a public demonstration… In the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision eliminating abortion as a constitutional right and returning abortion policy decisions to individual state governments, 31% of those who have expressed a desire to protest name the abortion issue as their greatest motivation to do so.”

“Beyond abortion, the issues now mentioned most as reasons to demonstrate are law enforcement or Black Lives Matter (22%), women’s rights (19%), civil or equal rights (11%), and government or political issues (10%).”

Bonus Quote of the Day

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“The conservative legislature wanted this to be among a small group of voters who generally lean conservative and have more competitive primaries in Kansas. But here we are, and people know what’s on the ballot and I think they know what’s at stake. I think the plan backfired and they ended up with a vote on abortion only weeks after the fall of Roe.”

— Planned Parenthood CEO Emily Wales, quoted by Vanity Fair, on Kansas Republicans putting the abortion measure on the primary ballot instead of the general election ballot.

Arizona GOP Candidate Warned Over Election Interference

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“The Maricopa County Attorney’s Office on Tuesday ordered a Republican candidate to stop urging voters to replace government-issued pens at polling stations,” the Arizona Republic reports.

“In a cease and desist letter, the County Attorney’s Office told Maricopa County Board of Supervisors candidate Gail Golec (R) to immediately retract social media posts.”

Said Deputy County Attorney Joseph La Rue: “As you well know, theft of any sort is unlawful. Moreover encouraging theft of the fast-drying ink pens specifically recommended for election day voting is a deliberate attempt to interfere with election administration.”

Working from Home Works Out for Biden

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Washington Post: “Since first testing positive for Covid nearly two weeks ago and remaining at the White House, Biden has presided over a remarkably successful, if short, stretch of his presidency.”

“Biden celebrated as the Senate, and then the House, passed the Chips and Science Act — a $280 billion bill that will subsidize domestic semiconductor manufacturing in an effort to help U.S. companies compete with China. He delighted as Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Charles Schumer (D-NY) reached a secretive and unexpected $370 billion deal on legislation to lower prescription drug prices, cut emissions and overhaul how the country produces energy.”
 
“Then, after a rebound infection that the president’s doctor announced Saturday, a covid-positive Biden announced Monday evening that he had ordered the successful killing via two Hellfire missiles of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of al-Qaeda and one of the world’s most-wanted terrorists who, along with Osama bin Laden, helped mastermind the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.”

Abortion Rights Jolt the Midterms

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Politico: “It would have been a victory for Democrats and abortion rights activists if they’d even kept it close in Kansas.”

“Instead, as the heavily Republican state rejected an anti-abortion constitutional amendment, it marked a political earthquake with the potential to reshape the entire midterm campaign.”

“And if the politics of Roe proved fraught for Republicans in Kansas, it’s going to be even more treacherous for the GOP in swing-ier, more moderate swaths of the country.”

Washington Post: “Polls had suggested that the measure could go either way, but Kansas is also a red state (albeit one with a Democratic governor). So what led to the somewhat surprising result? Motivated Democratic voters. Other than this ballot initiative, there weren’t many reasons for them to come out to vote in this primary. Yet Democratic turnout was up more than 60 percent compared to 2018, when Kansas Democrats were deciding whom should be their gubernatorial nominee.”

Taliban Facing Backlash After U.S. Drone Strike

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“The U.S. drone strike that killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri here early Sunday also struck a humiliating blow against the Taliban regime, which had secretly hosted the aging extremist in the heart of the Afghan capital for months but failed to keep him safe,” the Washington Post reports.

“Just as the Taliban was preparing to celebrate its first year in power later this month, the attack has sparked a nationalistic backlash against the beleaguered regime at home and taunting comments on social media calling for revenge against the United States.”

Victories by Trump Allies Showcase His Grip on GOP Base

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“Primary victories in Arizona and Michigan for allies of Donald Trump on Tuesday reaffirmed his continued influence over the Republican Party, as the former president has sought to cleanse the party of his critics, install loyalists in key swing-state offices and scare off potential 2024 rivals with a show of brute political force,” the New York Times reports.

“In a particularly symbolic victory for Mr. Trump, Rusty Bowers, the Republican speaker of the Arizona House who gained national attention after testifying against Mr. Trump at the Jan. 6 congressional hearings, lost his bid for State Senate.”

Judge Rejects Bid to Delay Oath Keepers Trial

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“The first trial on seditious conspiracy charges related to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol is on track to begin in Washington next month for nine members of the Oath Keepers’ militia, after a federal judge on Tuesday turned down a request by nearly all defendants to put off the courtroom showdown until next year,” Politico reports.

About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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