Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball made 10 House rating changes — 9 of which benefit Republicans.
The bottom line: “Our overall best guess at the net change in the House — a GOP gain somewhere in the 20s — remains unchanged.”
U.S. Economy Shrank Last Quarter
“The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.9% annual rate last quarter,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“That marks a second straight quarterly decline in gross domestic product — a common definition of recession.”
“Inflation hit a fresh four-decade high during the second quarter, hammering consumer sentiment and eroding Americans’ purchasing power. The Federal Reserve responded by aggressively raising interest rates, which in turn cooled the housing market, reducing brokers’ commissions and denting residential investment.”
CNBC: “Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.”
Trump Asks Court to Rule He Has ‘Absolute Immunity’
Former President Donald Trump has asked the D.C. Circuit Court to rule he has “absolute immunity” from lawsuits pertaining to his January 6 speech and the subsequent moves he made surrounding the 2020 election.
Biden’s Tax Promises Suddenly Revived
“President Joe Biden’s campaign trail promise to increase taxes on corporations and the wealthy as part of a battle against glaring income inequality in the United States got an unexpected boost on Wednesday,” Reuters reports.
“Early proposals to increase tax rates from Biden and his fellow Democrats hit a brick wall in Congress after Republicans, and some Democrats, opposed them. But a sudden reversal by West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, a swing vote in the divided Senate, has given Biden’s tax agenda a new lease on life.”
Trump Appeals to Men Insecure About Their Manhood
Political scientists Eric Knowles and Sarah DiMuccio write in the Washington Post:
“From boasting about the size of his penis on national television to releasing records of his high testosterone levels, President Trump’s rhetoric and behavior exude machismo. His behavior also seems to have struck a chord with some male voters.“
“But our research suggests that Trump is not necessarily attracting male supporters who are as confidently masculine as the president presents himself to be. Instead, Trump appears to appeal more to men who are secretly insecure about their manhood. We call this the ‘fragile masculinity hypothesis.”
Trump-Backed Candidate Has Aggressive Past
Max Miller (R), the Donald Trump-backed candidate to unseat a GOP congressman in Ohio, has a history of aggressive behavior, Politico reports.
“Miller can be a cocky bully with a quick-trigger temper. He has a record of speeding, underage drinking and disorderly conduct—documented charges from multiple jurisdictions that include a previously unreported charge in 2011 for driving under the influence that he subsequently pleaded down to a more minor offense.”
“And barely more than a year ago, according to three people familiar with the incident, Miller’s romantic relationship with former White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham ended when he pushed her against a wall and slapped her in the face in his Washington apartment after she accused him of cheating on her.”
Many Democrats Still View Biden as Campaign Asset
“Many Democrats are cautiously welcoming President Joe Biden on the campaign trail, banking on his assets outweighing his unpopularity in the party’s bid to retain control of both chambers of Congress,” Bloomberg reports.
“A dozen incumbents in tight races told Bloomberg Government they’d embrace the beleaguered leader of their party, albeit with varying degrees of enthusiasm and commitment.”
Related from The Hill: Biden allies say enthusiasm gap fueled by lack of engagement, “personal touch.”
Adam Schiff Is Jockeying to Lead House Democrats
“The shadow campaign to lead House Democrats next year has been underway for months — and in many ways years — as a new generation of leaders quietly makes a play for the top positions,” the Washington Post reports.
“But an eleventh-hour push by Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) in recent weeks has taken Democrats by surprise and raised questions about how the caucus wants to mirror the diversity that makes up its party’s base.”
Whaddya Doing In Pennsylvania?
Stevie Van Zandt is the latest New Jersey celebrity helping Pennsylvania U.S. Senate candidate John Fetterman (D) troll rival Mehmet Oz (R).
Quote of the Day
“Sorry, Jared, there is nothing I can do.”
— Rupert Murdoch on the phone to Jared Kushner, quoted by the New York Times on Election Night 2020.
Pelosi to Taiwan Would Be Career Capstone
“House Speaker Nancy Pelosi launched her political career being tough on China — a new congresswoman who dared to unfurl a pro-democracy banner in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square during a 1991 visit with other U.S. lawmakers shortly after the student massacre,” the AP reports.
“More than 30 years later, her interest in traveling to Taiwan presents a powerful diplomatic capstone. It has also contributed to tensions at the highest levels in Washington and Beijing among officials who worry a trip could prove provocative.”
NBC News: Empty threats? Fears grow as China fumes over possible Pelosi visit to Taiwan.
CNN: Pentagon working to develop security plan for Pelosi ahead of possible trip to Taiwan.
The Attack on Mallory McMorrow Backfired
“The numbers are in and it’s official: The attack on Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) backfired,” Politico reports.
“The Michigan Republican state senator who falsely described McMorrow as a ‘groomer’ in an April fundraising email raised less than $300 in the days following the solicitation, according to campaign finance filings. McMorrow, on the other hand, raised more than $1 million.”
Mick Mulvaney Testifying to January 6 Committee
Former Trump White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney is scheduled to testify Thursday before the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol, CBS News reports.
Gas Prices Are Falling
Politico: “Gasoline prices may have peaked too soon to remain the lethal campaign weapon for Republicans that they seemed to be a month ago.”
“It’s an open question, though, whether voters will give more weight to the declining fuel prices, or to the fact that they spiked so high to begin with.”
U.S. Seen Narrowly Averting Back-to-Back Contractions
“The US economy may have eked out modest growth in the second quarter, skirting back-to-back quarterly contractions, but rising at a tepid enough pace to feed concerns of an eventual downturn,” Bloomberg reports.
Fed chairman Jerome Powell told CNBC that he does not think the U.S. is currently in a recession: “There are too many areas of the economy that are performing too well. This is a very strong labor market… It doesn’t make sense that the economy would be in a recession with this kind of thing happening.”
It’s Not a Done Deal Yet
Playbook offers two bits of caution around the surprise tax and climate deal announced by Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) yesterday:
“Though Democrats on the Hill and at the White House are celebrating, there’s still the Sen. Kyrsten Sinema-sized hurdle they need to clear. She hasn’t publicly signed off just yet, and the bill includes some provisions she has previously told leadership were no-gos for her, like taxing carried interest.”
“How will moderate House Dems of the Josh Gottheimer variety react to the exclusion of the SALT deductions they sought to restore, which were make-or-break for them in last year’s talks?”
Warnock Opens Up Big Lead in Georgia
A new SurveyUSA poll in Georgia finds Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) leading challenger Herschel Walker (R) by 9 points, 48% to 39%.
In the race for governor, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) leads challenger Stacey Abrams (D) by just one point, 45% to 44%.
Democrats Pull a Fast One on Mitch McConnell
“Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said last month that he wouldn’t allow the Senate to pass a bipartisan bill on computer chips if Democrats tried to revive their ‘Build Back Better’ agenda,” the HuffPost reports.
“On Wednesday, the Senate approved the bipartisan tech manufacturing bill, and hours later Democrats announced a breakthrough on their big domestic policy legislation.”
“In other words, McConnell’s gambit failed.”
