“Amid a knockdown, drag-out fight for control of Congress, one issue is dominating advertising and transcending partisan divides, instead pitting challengers against incumbents: Everyone is running against members of Congress trading stocks,” NBC News reports.
“At least one TV or digital ad mentioning the issue has run in the last month in nearly every competitive race for Congress.”
For members: Affordability Meets Corruption
“Despite a push for mid-decade redistricting, a massive reserve of cash, and an unpopular opposition party, Republicans are on track to lose their House majority this November,” Cook Political Report reports.
“Unlike in 2018, the last midterm cycle when Republicans were in power, the most competitive House races are almost entirely in districts that President Donald Trump won. But, in large part due to his handling of the economy, the president is now deeply underwater and is dragging down Republican House members and candidates across these districts.”
“Democrats currently hold 215 seats, meaning they need to gain just three seats to take back the majority. But the realm of competitive and potentially competitive districts is fairly small. The most likely outcome at this point is that Democrats pick up five to 15 seats, resulting in Democrats holding 220 to 230 seats in 2027 — a fairly slim majority in modern U.S. history. That range could shift further in Democrats’ favor over the next five weeks if Republicans are unable to effectively stem the bleeding.”
President Trump showed off his “portrait” of President Joe Biden’s autopen to Chinese president Xi Jinping during a tour of the White House.
“Satellite imagery and intelligence support provided by Chinese groups has helped Iran threaten ships in the Strait of Hormuz and launch precision strikes on U.S. military bases in the Middle East, part of a dramatic improvement in Iranian targeting capabilities over the past several months,” CNN reports.
“The imagery allowed Iran to strike a U.S. base in Jordan in July, a strike that killed three American service members, with a level of precision U.S. officials believe was otherwise beyond Iran’s capabilities.”
“Yesterday, Iowa House Republicans were informed by their own pollsters that if you are in a +15 district you’re within the margin for error, if you’re in a +10 district you’re underwater, and that this might end being an even worse midterm environment than 2006.”
— Iowa talk show host Steve Deace, quoted by the Daily Mail.
“Democrats are heading into the final stretch of the 2026 midterms with their largest lead yet in the race for Congress and President Donald Trump’s approval rating at a significant low,” NBC News reports.
“A 9-percentage-point advantage for Democrats when it comes to control of Congress is part of a steady deterioration of the political environment for Republicans. The parties started the road to this November effectively tied in the weeks after President Donald Trump returned to office last year, but independents have gradually begun to prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress. And those voters have soured on Trump and his economic policies in particular.”
“President Trump is planning to rally in heavily Republican states over the next week as his party works to compete in battleground states to preserve its control of Congress,” the New York Times reports.
“Republicans said he would appear in Durant, Okla. on Thursday and in Mobile, Ala. next Friday. The Trump 47 Committee, his joint fund-raising vehicle with the Republican National Committee, will host both events.”
“President Trump blasted CNN and MS Now on Thursday over their coverage of his meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, which did not include live video coverage and came as a federal judge reinstated the outlets’ White House access,” NewsNation reports.
Said Trump: “The event was magnificent — Actually made for Television but, because they’re Fake News, and because they knew how good it would be, they didn’t want credit to be given to ‘TRUMP,’ they refused to be there.”
Deadline: CNN says it was denied Trump White House access to cover arrivals at state dinner for Chinese President Xi Jinping.
“For China and its top leader, Xi Jinping, the biggest prize from a summit in Washington, notably free from confrontation, may be simple: time,” the New York Times reports.
“Time to cope with a housing market crash that has wiped away the savings of tens of millions of Chinese families. Time to deal with local governments running short of money as land-use revenue collapses. Time to make China even less vulnerable to economic pressure from the United States and other industrialized countries.”
“And perhaps most consequentially, time to prepare for the once-in-five-years Communist Party national congress next autumn, which will choose a new slate of top leaders to work under Mr. Xi.”
Tom Nichols: “Summits are a problem in this administration for two reasons. The most important is that Trump’s unpredictability and obvious lack of preparation make them dangerous. State visits require a lot of political groundwork, and leaders rarely go into top-level meetings without a set of issues they’ve already agreed to discuss. This agenda-setting gets done long before a president actually sits down with another head of state so that stray asides (or rising tempers) do not derail whatever business needs to be discussed.”
“The grim outcomes of previous summits with Trump, however, suggest that they are seat-of-the-pants affairs, with little preparation, or perhaps with preparation that was ignored by the president.”
“Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola has become a central part of her party’s plan to flip the Senate in November, but you won’t hear her talk much about that when she’s on the campaign trail,” Bloomberg reports.
“Peltola hardly mentions that she’s a Democrat in a state that President Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024. Instead, she emphasizes her native Alaskan roots, her background in commercial fishing, her support for oil and gas projects and her conviction that guns have a place in the most remote corner of the U.S..”
“I was trying to warn people that if they actually wanted to hold the seat, that I would be a safer bet.”
— Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), quoted by Punchbowl News, on polls showing Ken Paxton trailing in the U.S. Senate race in Texas.
“President Trump’s trade war with Canada could intensify the headwinds Republicans are navigating ahead of the November midterms, with its effects poised to reverberate in northern battleground states with crucial Senate races,” the Los Angeles Times reports.
“The escalating beef with Canada — Trump attacked the country anew on social media Wednesday — stands to heighten voters’ economic worries and add to the GOP’s political challenge in dead-heat races, analysts said.”
“The most effective escalation of President Trump’s mass deportation campaign happened quietly,” the New York Times reports.
“Unlike earlier high-profile raids that drew thousands of protesters into the streets of Chicago, Los Angeles and Minneapolis, the surge in arrests in June, July and August was captured mostly by grainy security camera footage, through cracked blinds and from behind closed doors.”
“Arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement this summer soared to record highs since the start of this Trump administration — with 43,000 in June, more than 49,000 in July and nearly 51,000 in August — as officials cut or narrowed the pathways to legal residency in the United States and expanded the pool of people eligible for deportation.”
Punchbowl News: “The Senate Republican leadership-backed super PAC boosting Ken Paxton in Texas could spend as much as $200 million between now and Nov. 3, according to sources familiar with their efforts.”
“Texas PAC, which is run and partially funded by Senate Leadership Fund, has already booked $117 million in ads in the Lone Star State to try to help Paxton compete with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. Much will depend on how much SLF can raise for Texas PAC.”
“Paxton hasn’t led Talarico in a single public poll since mid-August. And here’s the scary part for Republicans: private GOP polling mirrors the public surveys.”
“The U.S. economy keeps powering through inflation, tariffs and higher borrowing costs, defying a run-up in Treasury yields and a Fed rate increase. That has the bond market spooked,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The usual economic brakes aren’t slowing growth, hiring or an AI investment boom that looks to be unstoppable. To some, AI’s potential returns seem so bright that even steep interest rates won’t slow down tech companies’ investments.”
“President Donald Trump is tentatively set to visit Alabama for a political rally next week, a curious move in a deep-red state as his party fights for control of Congress in several battlegrounds,” Politico reports.
“The event is penciled in for Oct. 2 in Mobile, but the plans have not yet been finalized and are subject to change.”
“An October rally in Alabama would be a somewhat confounding decision for the president. The GOP has found itself having to play defense in their own territory recently, with Democratic candidates are seriously competing for Senate seats in normally red states like Alaska and Texas. But Alabama has not been considered a state where Democrats have any real shot at winning any statewide office.”
Charlie Cook: “Unless you’re politically tone-deaf, you’re by now aware that there are ugly storm clouds ahead for Republicans in this midterm election, now just 43 days away. But how big the storm is and where the destruction will take place is still unknowable. While many have long predicted that Democrats will enjoy a ‘blue wave’ election, I think of it more as a ‘red undertow,’ which will pull many Republicans under and significantly trim the margins for many others.”
“A blue wave implies an endorsement or affirmation of Democrats and their policies. But Democrats’ brand is still in tatters from 2021-2025, particularly 2021 and 2022, when they not only had President Biden in the White House but also majorities in the Senate and House. Fortunately for Democrats, this election will in most cases not be about them.”
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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