Political Wire

Pennsylvania Senate Race Remains a Toss Up

May 18, 2022 at 1:38 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “The race for the Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination remains uncalled, and it will remain a Toss-up in our ratings regardless of whether businessman David McCormick or television doctor Mehmet Oz eventually wins the right to face Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) in an open-seat race.”

“Republicans are concerned about their chances in the open Pennsylvania gubernatorial race after far-right state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) won the party’s nomination. We’re moving that race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.”

Kansas Supreme Court Upholds New Map

May 18, 2022 at 12:17 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Kansas Supreme Court has upheld a Republican-drawn congressional map that divides racially diverse Wyandotte County for the first time in 40 years, finding the boundary lines don’t violate the state constitution,” the Kansas City Star reports.

“The decision means voters in the northern half of the Democratic stronghold county will likely be represented by a Republican in Congress, while Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids will face a more challenging re-election campaign in the newly redrawn 3rd District, which now includes more conservative-leaning rural areas.”

Attacks Derailed Biden’s Attempt to Fight Disinformation

May 18, 2022 at 11:21 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

After just three weeks, the panel President Biden created to help fight misinformation ended up being victim of misinformation and was at least temporarily suspended, the Washington Post reports.

Russian Soldier Pleads Guilty to War Crime

May 18, 2022 at 10:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A 21-year-old Russian tank-unit officer pleaded guilty to shooting an unarmed civilian in Ukraine’s first war-crimes trial since Russia’s invasion of the country,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Trump Wins Even By Losing

May 18, 2022 at 10:46 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The political news this morning is swamped with stories on Donald Trump’s influence and whether it’s solidifying or waning based on individual primary results from last night.

But that completely misses the point.

Join now to continue reading.

Members get exclusive analysis, bonus features and no advertising. Learn more.

If you’re already a member, sign in to your account.

Can You Even Call Deadly Heat ‘Extreme’ Anymore?

May 18, 2022 at 10:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

David Wallace-Wells: “For a few years, I’ve startled people by pointing out that over half of all of the emissions from the burning of fossil fuels that have ever been produced in the history of humanity have been produced in the past 30 years — since Al Gore published his first book on warming; since the U.N. established its climate-change body, the I.P.C.C.; since the premiere of ‘Friends.’”

“But it is perhaps even more astonishing to consider just how fast the temperature is rising. As recently as 2015, the 10-year average of global temperatures showed, according to the I.P.C.C., warming of 0.87 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average. Just five years later, it had jumped to 1.09 — 25 percent higher in half a decade.”

Lombardo Leads GOP Primary for Nevada Governor

May 18, 2022 at 9:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Nevada Independent/OH Predictive Insights poll in Nevada shows Joe Lombardo (R) maintains a significant lead over his fellow Republican gubernatorial candidates.

Lombardo, who was endorsed by Donald Trump, gets 35% support, followed by Joey Gilbert (R) at 15% and Dean Heller (R) at 10%.

Democrats Favored In Pennsylvania Governor’s Race

May 18, 2022 at 9:38 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Cook Political Report: “Josh Shapiro has a significant campaign war chest and a proven record of electoral crossover appeal, but a stronger GOP candidate might have blunted that crossover appeal. The national environment matters less in governors’ races, but candidate quality matters more.”

“We are shifting our rating in this race from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, and it could move into even safer Democratic territory as the cycle goes on.”

New York Democrats Turn Against Each Other

May 18, 2022 at 8:43 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “The once-a-decade congressional redistricting process is almost always an exercise in raw political power, particularly in a state like New York, which this year must shed a seat overall to account for population losses.”

“But if New York’s redistricting cycle began this year with an attempt by Democrats to marginalize Republicans, it now appears destined to end in intense infighting among Democrats as the Aug. 23 primary approaches — thanks to a ruling last month by the state’s highest court declaring the Democrat-led Legislature’s maps unconstitutional.”

China Draws North Korea Closer

May 18, 2022 at 8:38 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “As President Biden makes his first presidential trip to South Korea and Japan in the next week, he faces shifting dynamics in Northeast Asia that pose steep challenges to U.S. efforts to shore up alliances to counter China’s rise. A key challenge is North Korea’s thawing relationships with China and Russia, aimed at reducing U.S. influence in the region.”

“In particular, China’s strategic overture to North Korea since the collapse of U.S.-North Korea diplomatic talks in 2019 has drawn the two countries closer. With tensions rising over the U.S.-China competition and a new South Korean conservative government that vows to take a harder line on North Korea and China, Beijing has more incentive to keep Pyongyang close, experts say.”

Third of Americans Say Pandemic Is Over

May 18, 2022 at 8:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Axios/Ipsos poll finds that 31% of Americans believe the coronavirus pandemic is over while 69% disagreed.

However, perception of the pandemic varied widely across party lines, with 59% of Republicans, 27% of independents and 10% of Democrats agreeing the pandemic is over.

U.K. Inflation Hits 40-Year High

May 18, 2022 at 7:23 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The U.K.’s annual rate of inflation jumped to a forty-year-high in April, the highest level recorded by an industrialized nation since the start of the global price surge last year,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Gasoline Tops $4 a Gallon in Every State

May 18, 2022 at 7:14 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Gasoline pump prices have risen above $4 a gallon in all states in the US for the first time ever as the last holdouts — Kansas, Oklahoma and Georgia — saw prices rise overnight,” Bloomberg reports.

GOP Senate Primary in Pennsylvania Still Undecided

May 18, 2022 at 7:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The high-spending Republican Senate race in Pennsylvania, between Dr. Mehmet Oz, the celebrity television physician, and Dave McCormick, the wealthy leader of a hedge fund, is nail-bitingly close. Neither candidate conceded, and an official recount is likely,” the New York Times reports.

Philadelphia Inquirer: “There were still thousands of votes waiting to be counted, including mail ballots, overseas and military ballots and provisional ballots…”

“It was unclear early Wednesday how quickly the remaining ballots would be counted. Any recount could take weeks to resolve.”

David Wasserman: “Absent a Kathy Barnette win, that’s probably the best news John Fetterman could ask for.”

Polls Show Australia’s Election Tightening

May 18, 2022 at 7:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Australia’s national election has become too close to call, polls released on Wednesday showed, as the ruling conservative coalition narrowed the gap with the main opposition Labor Party three days before the country decides on a new government,” Nikkei Asia reports.

Democrats Question Whether Maloney Can Run DCCC

May 18, 2022 at 6:50 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“House Democrats could find themselves picking sides in a deeply uncomfortable primary this summer: their campaign chair versus a Black freshman. And a growing swath of the caucus is blaming its midterm chief, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, for the predicament,” Politico reports.

“Maloney’s decision to abandon a newly redrawn version of his current swing district — and instead run for a seat that includes most of Rep. Mondaire Jones’ turf — is raising private concerns from across the party that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chief has put himself in an inappropriate scenario: leading the party’s midterm strategy while potentially battling a fellow member.”

Punchbowl News: “Tensions are running so high that several members have approached Democratic leaders and said they’d call for Maloney to step down if he decides to go ahead and challenge Jones, a 35-year-old progressive. That would be a disaster for Democrats as they head into the heart of what’s going to be a very tough election cycle for them.”

Takeaways from Madison Cawthorn’s Primary Loss

May 18, 2022 at 6:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “This was a major win for Thom Tillis. The GOP senator from the Tar Heel State came out hard against Cawthorn. A PAC tied to him even spent heavily to oust the representative, whom he called an ‘embarrassment.’ It is a rare example of an elected Republican leader stepping up to stop a conservative candidate he views as problematic for the party — at a time when many other Republicans have ducked for cover, lest they anger the MAGA base.”

Also: “It’s one less headache for Kevin McCarthy — at least in theory. Cawthorn’s drama has been a distraction for the minority leader in his quest to flip the House — to the point that he chided Cawthorn publicly, something he is loath to do to his own members. However, this could cut another way: With his re-election no longer a concern, could Cawthorn become even more of a loose cannon?”

Kurt Schrader Faces Possible Defeat

May 18, 2022 at 6:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Kurt Schrader’s (D-OR) future in Congress was still on the line Tuesday night, as early returns showed Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) mounting a robust challenge to the seven-term incumbent U.S. House member, the Oregonian reports.

“Preliminary returns as of 11 p.m. Tuesday showed McLeod-Skinner with 61% of the vote compared to 39% for Schrader, the only other Democrat on the ballot.”

“However, with Oregon’s new law that allows ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted, and with a printing error and Clackamas County elections officials’ poor performance delaying results from most voters in that populous county — home to nearly half of the 5th District’s Democrats — the result of the race may not be known for several days.”

The Intercept: The “Joe Manchin of the House” nears defeat in his Oregon primary.