Polls close in Alabama and Mississippi at 8 pm ET. Caucuses in Hawaii begin at 2 am ET.

A win by Mitt Romney in either or both of the two Southern states voting today would seriously undermine his two primary rivals, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.

Nate Silver notes Southern states “have a reputation for counting their vote slowly.”

This is interesting: The Washington Post reports Romney is not holding a celebration tonight and is instead watching results from a hotel room in New York City.

Exit polls show Santorum leading by five points in Alabama, Romney leading by five points in Mississippi. No network is willing to make a projection based on these numbers.

Washington Examiner: “Newt Gingrich’s campaign has just sent out a memo that reveals (to no
one’s surprise) a defiant determination to stay in the race until the
end. If you read between the lines, it looks like he’s almost conceding
tonight’s races in advance.”

NBC News projects Santorum will win in Alabama.

Fox News projects Santorum will win in Mississippi.

Expect the narrative that Romney can’t reach the 1,144 delegates to gain steam in the coming days.

The Illinois primary on March 20 will be an epic battle between Romney and Santorum.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is recruiting former Rep. Joe Schwarz (R-MI) to run against Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI), The Hill reports.

Said Schwarz: “We talked and have had very pleasant conversations about it. The DCCC is correctly looking for a candidate to run in the 7th district because there certainly would be a stark contrast between Congressman Walberg and a viable, credible Democratic candidate.”

A new MoveOn video clearly highlights the problem Republicans could have with women in this year’s elections.

[Read more…]

Sarah Palin responded on Facebook to President Obama’s reelection campaign after footage of her was used in a fundraising video.

Said Palin: “I’m not running for any office, but I’m more than happy to accept the dubious honor of being Barack Obama’s ‘enemy of the week’ if that includes the opportunity to debate him on the issues Americans are actually concerned about.”

She added: “I’m willing and free to discuss these issues with the President anywhere, anytime.”

[Read more…]

Regardless of the final popular vote result in Alabama and Mississippi, Harry Enten notes the the net delegate count in each state is likely to be pretty even.

“Mississippi’s delegates are going to be split proportionally, and we’re probably looking at a split of nine delegates for Gingrich, nine for Romney, and seven for Santorum. Alabama has a ‘top two’ primary in each congressional district (that is, the winner in each district will get two delegates and second-placed candidate will get one), while the state-wide delegates will be apportioned proportionally. Determining who will win which districts is difficult in such a close state-wide race. Romney’s probably going to come in third in the more rural areas, but he could win the districts around Birmingham, Huntsville and Mobile. My estimate is that he’ll take 14-17 delegates state-wide, while Santorum and Gingrich take 11-20 delegates each.”

That said, Romney will still likely end the night with more delegates than his rivals.

“Though not subject to much media focus, Romney’s going to do very well in the American Samoa and Hawaii caucuses. American Samoa is 30% Mormon (the most Mormon-dominated contest this year, outside of Utah)… Hawaii’s delegates will be divided more evenly because its allocation
system is proportional.”

Richard Cohen notes that since Sarah Palin stepped on the national political stage we’ve been subjected to “a deluge of dysfunctional presidential candidates. They do not lie with quite the conviction of Palin, but they are sometimes her match in ignorance. As with Palin, it seemed hardly to matter… Palin is no longer an anomaly.”

“So far, the Palin effect has been limited to the GOP. Surely, though, there lurks in the Democratic Party potential candidates who have seen Palin and taken note. Experience, knowledge, accomplishment — these no longer may matter. They will come roaring out of the left proclaiming a hatred of all things Washington, including compromise. The movie had it right. Sarah Palin changed the game.”

“I think he’ll have the most delegates but not a majority.”

— Newt Gingrich, in an interview on Fox News, suggesting Mitt Romney will not win the 1,144 delegates needed to clinch the GOP presidential nomination.

Though he was “totally stunned” Rick Santorum could be considered a viable presidential candidate, former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D) praised him on Morning Joe as a “great pork Senator.”

Said Rendell: “You know, Rick over the course of time, some things he did very well, he was a great — I hate to say this, he was a great pork Senator. I would call him and say we need this, we got it. He was a great pork Senator.”

[Read more…]

John Avlon: “Republicans are in a bruising primary struggle with no candidate close to the 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination, and leaving aside the advent of super PACS, they did it to themselves by adopting a proportional-delegate rule in 2010.”

Yes, we’ve heard this many times before, but the Republican presidential nomination could come down to a single night’s primary results.

Mike Allen: “If Newt Gingrich loses the primaries in both Mississippi and Alabama, after being tied for first in each, he could be effectively out of the race. If Gingrich wins both, he has a fresh rationale for going forward and denies Rick Santorum the chance for a one-on-one — ensuring that no non-Romney can accrue anywhere the delegates needed to deny Mitt Romney the nomination. If Santorum wins both, he has an argument to go on, despite little shot at the crown. If Romney wins both, he can say he has won in the deepest South, Michigan, Ohio and Florida – case closed.”

First Read: “By the way, there’s a reason why the Romney folks have concentrated more
on Alabama than Mississippi: Because third place in an Alabama
congressional district doesn’t net you a delegate, second place there
matters a lot.”

Polls close in both states at 8 pm ET.

A new WWL-TV poll in Louisiana finds Rick Santorum with a small lead in the GOP presidential race at 25%, followed by Mitt Romney at 21%, Newt Gingrich at 20% and Ron Paul at 6%.

The Louisiana primary is on March 24.